190
Regional Environmental Changes: Application to Soil Erosion Modeling
For most of the countries in the North quantitative pressures would remain similar
to present ones with some possibilities for adapting to extreme events and for
preserving water quality and the environment.
But in the countries of the South and East quantitative pressures and water
shortage risks would increase. Demands should be adapted to decreasing
availability and natural environments would be reduced dramatically (see Fig. 2.
Margat 1992).
1 .2 Probable impacts of a climate change
A climate change will have a major impact on the availability of water, in terms of
feeding the terrestrial ecosystems as well as the fresh water systems. It is largely
agreed that a probable climate change in the Mediterranean basin and particularly
the Western part would result in an increase of temperature and decrease of
precipitation (Hulme H. 1989).
This will aggravate the water shortage during the sensitive summer season, reduce
the total water availability for vegetation and crop growth as well as for human
population, and certainly affect the capacity of the vegetation cover to protect the
soil from erosion.
Thus, with regard to the protective role of mountains for water and soil resources,
the possible impact of a climate change on mountain ecosystems is a critical issue
for all the Mediterranean regions, with many social, economic and environmental
implications.
Some available data illustrate the dimension of problems, like the indicative
hydrological shifts due to a changing climate for the European countries based on
the UKMO scenarios (see Fig. 3, Brouwer, Falkenmark, 1989). Countries like
Spain, Italy or Greece would experience a large-scale and permanent water stress
problem.
The ability of mountain ecosystems to protect their vegetation cover, soil and water
resources will be crucial, to an extent that is probably unexpected today. This is
why understanding their past and present evolution is so important in order for us
to be able to adapt integrated strategies for the future.
1 .3 Recent changes in the Mediterranean mountains
The recent historical evolution has generated two very distinct situations around
the Mediterranean basin.
In the North, the non management of abandoned rural landscapes is responsible
for severe environmental threats, such as primarily forest fires, but also erosion,
depletion of water resources, loss of biodiversity and landscapes.
Regional Environmental Changes: Application to Soil Erosion Modeling
For most of the countries in the North quantitative pressures would remain similar
to present ones with some possibilities for adapting to extreme events and for
preserving water quality and the environment.
But in the countries of the South and East quantitative pressures and water
shortage risks would increase. Demands should be adapted to decreasing
availability and natural environments would be reduced dramatically (see Fig. 2.
Margat 1992).
1 .2 Probable impacts of a climate change
A climate change will have a major impact on the availability of water, in terms of
feeding the terrestrial ecosystems as well as the fresh water systems. It is largely
agreed that a probable climate change in the Mediterranean basin and particularly
the Western part would result in an increase of temperature and decrease of
precipitation (Hulme H. 1989).
This will aggravate the water shortage during the sensitive summer season, reduce
the total water availability for vegetation and crop growth as well as for human
population, and certainly affect the capacity of the vegetation cover to protect the
soil from erosion.
Thus, with regard to the protective role of mountains for water and soil resources,
the possible impact of a climate change on mountain ecosystems is a critical issue
for all the Mediterranean regions, with many social, economic and environmental
implications.
Some available data illustrate the dimension of problems, like the indicative
hydrological shifts due to a changing climate for the European countries based on
the UKMO scenarios (see Fig. 3, Brouwer, Falkenmark, 1989). Countries like
Spain, Italy or Greece would experience a large-scale and permanent water stress
problem.
The ability of mountain ecosystems to protect their vegetation cover, soil and water
resources will be crucial, to an extent that is probably unexpected today. This is
why understanding their past and present evolution is so important in order for us
to be able to adapt integrated strategies for the future.
1 .3 Recent changes in the Mediterranean mountains
The recent historical evolution has generated two very distinct situations around
the Mediterranean basin.
In the North, the non management of abandoned rural landscapes is responsible
for severe environmental threats, such as primarily forest fires, but also erosion,
depletion of water resources, loss of biodiversity and landscapes.