world, and therefore is highly likely to pose a threat to security and
stability in the region. Environmental conditions are certainly not the only
reasons war rages in Afghanistan, but it is very fair to summarize that
environmental security considerations are definitely contributory issues.
The key to anticipating issues and preventing problems will be in attaining
both understanding of processes and reasonable estimates of such factors
as deforestation rates, water scarcities, and population growth. Ecological
modeling will be a key element in being able to predict the future and
to respond to changes in the environment. To develop useful approaches,
modelers will have to consider the needs of strategic planners and to
develop ways to reduce uncertainty and risk in projections. Only then will
policy planners be equipped to address the issues in a coherent way.
Throughout this chapter, issues that require or can be improved through
the effective use of ecological modeling have been highlighted. In a final
analysis, it appears that two general categories of problems need to be
addressed: one is a process, and the other is communication. Many reading
this chapter may find it remiss in not purporting the need for more and
better science as a major concern. Certainly, there are unknowns in modeling such issues as climate, critical species and habitats, and many of the
other environmental security issues, but fuller use of the science available
now would go a long way toward solving current problems. Therefore, this
chapter focuses on opportunities that optimize the use of the existing
models and their products.
A major deficiency in environmental security analysis is that results of
ecological modeling are not being well utilized in environmental security
decision making. The scientific community may not be answering the really
critical questions or may not be presenting results in ways that are understandable by decision makers, people who typically lack highly scientific
backgrounds. Consider one important example. A USA Today (Watson
2000) front-page headline reported that new climate models were predicting even more global warming than some previously thought. Each of the
two presidential candidates, Gore and Bush, had brief quotes on the
meaning of these results. Then–Vice President Gore found the reported
results disturbing and of great concern, while then-Governor Bush thought
the information was insufficient to make any conclusions from at the time.
Based on the risk of dire consequences associated with increased global
warming, some sort of call for action or review would seem appropriate.
However, these model results did not produce this kind of response.
More effort is required to put the modeling community and the decision
makers who will use the results together early in the process of conducting
scientific discovery. This alliance is essential when ecological modeling is
intended to support planning and decision making, such as in environmental security analysis. Early discussions on goals for research and results
reporting can improve the applicability of modeling results. At a minimum,
up-front customer and user input should produce better acceptance and
understanding of model results.
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Wendell Chris King and Virginia H. Dale
stability in the region. Environmental conditions are certainly not the only
reasons war rages in Afghanistan, but it is very fair to summarize that
environmental security considerations are definitely contributory issues.
The key to anticipating issues and preventing problems will be in attaining
both understanding of processes and reasonable estimates of such factors
as deforestation rates, water scarcities, and population growth. Ecological
modeling will be a key element in being able to predict the future and
to respond to changes in the environment. To develop useful approaches,
modelers will have to consider the needs of strategic planners and to
develop ways to reduce uncertainty and risk in projections. Only then will
policy planners be equipped to address the issues in a coherent way.
Throughout this chapter, issues that require or can be improved through
the effective use of ecological modeling have been highlighted. In a final
analysis, it appears that two general categories of problems need to be
addressed: one is a process, and the other is communication. Many reading
this chapter may find it remiss in not purporting the need for more and
better science as a major concern. Certainly, there are unknowns in modeling such issues as climate, critical species and habitats, and many of the
other environmental security issues, but fuller use of the science available
now would go a long way toward solving current problems. Therefore, this
chapter focuses on opportunities that optimize the use of the existing
models and their products.
A major deficiency in environmental security analysis is that results of
ecological modeling are not being well utilized in environmental security
decision making. The scientific community may not be answering the really
critical questions or may not be presenting results in ways that are understandable by decision makers, people who typically lack highly scientific
backgrounds. Consider one important example. A USA Today (Watson
2000) front-page headline reported that new climate models were predicting even more global warming than some previously thought. Each of the
two presidential candidates, Gore and Bush, had brief quotes on the
meaning of these results. Then–Vice President Gore found the reported
results disturbing and of great concern, while then-Governor Bush thought
the information was insufficient to make any conclusions from at the time.
Based on the risk of dire consequences associated with increased global
warming, some sort of call for action or review would seem appropriate.
However, these model results did not produce this kind of response.
More effort is required to put the modeling community and the decision
makers who will use the results together early in the process of conducting
scientific discovery. This alliance is essential when ecological modeling is
intended to support planning and decision making, such as in environmental security analysis. Early discussions on goals for research and results
reporting can improve the applicability of modeling results. At a minimum,
up-front customer and user input should produce better acceptance and
understanding of model results.
306
Wendell Chris King and Virginia H. Dale