barren landscape. It is reasonable to surmise that there is a correlation
between the unrest in these countries and these drastic changes in their
environments. This situation alone would be sufficient reason to consider
the security implications of deforestation, but there are more direct issues
that result from the widespread loss of forest areas in a region. In relation
to environmental security, the most critical concerns are
• Reduced carrying capacity of the land
• Fewer forests as a component of the carbon cycle, resulting in loss of
carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) removal capacity
• Loss of biodiversity with all of its known and unknown implications
• Increased flooding and loss of soils, with resultant mudslides and waterway siltation
• Reduced economic benefits resulting from loss of forests as a renewable
resource
What is clearly evident in the available data and predictive modeling is
that impacts from deforestation will be most severe in tropical regions,
not unexpectedly because these are the regions of the highest deforestation rates. It appears that tropical regions are trading short-term economic
benefits for an unknown future. Most deforestation is being caused by
land-use changes, changing from forests into some agricultural or grazing
use. When considering security issues in the developing temperate-forest
countries, impacts on carrying capacity have the most direct and dire effects.
In the developing world, the land must provide water, food, and energy for
heating and cooking. Loss of fuel wood reduces the ability to properly
process food, and this could lead to both malnutrition and disease.
Ecological models are key to assessing both impacts and causes of
deforestation. Hansen et al. (2001) emphasize the value of models in
exploring feedbacks between climate, land use, and biodiversity. Aber et al.
(2001) discuss the role that different models play in assessing impacts of
multiple stressors on effects of global change on forests. Dale and Rauscher
(1994) point out that different models should be used to address unique
levels of biological organization (global, regional, community, and tree) and
impacts. No one model can consider them all. Furthermore, economics is a
primary factor in deforestation; Kaimowitz and Angelsen (1998) document
that modeling is a primary tool in addressing social and economic aspects
of forest loss.
15.2.3.2 Desertification
Today, some 40%, or 60 million km
2 , of the world’s land area is classified
as having a dry climate, with some 10 million km
2 of this land being considered desert (Houghton 1994). Desertification occurs when a vegetated
area, such as a steppe, through natural or human-induced processes loses
vegetative cover, allowing increased soil erosion, primarily by wind. This
15. Using Models for Environmental Security
297
between the unrest in these countries and these drastic changes in their
environments. This situation alone would be sufficient reason to consider
the security implications of deforestation, but there are more direct issues
that result from the widespread loss of forest areas in a region. In relation
to environmental security, the most critical concerns are
• Reduced carrying capacity of the land
• Fewer forests as a component of the carbon cycle, resulting in loss of
carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) removal capacity
• Loss of biodiversity with all of its known and unknown implications
• Increased flooding and loss of soils, with resultant mudslides and waterway siltation
• Reduced economic benefits resulting from loss of forests as a renewable
resource
What is clearly evident in the available data and predictive modeling is
that impacts from deforestation will be most severe in tropical regions,
not unexpectedly because these are the regions of the highest deforestation rates. It appears that tropical regions are trading short-term economic
benefits for an unknown future. Most deforestation is being caused by
land-use changes, changing from forests into some agricultural or grazing
use. When considering security issues in the developing temperate-forest
countries, impacts on carrying capacity have the most direct and dire effects.
In the developing world, the land must provide water, food, and energy for
heating and cooking. Loss of fuel wood reduces the ability to properly
process food, and this could lead to both malnutrition and disease.
Ecological models are key to assessing both impacts and causes of
deforestation. Hansen et al. (2001) emphasize the value of models in
exploring feedbacks between climate, land use, and biodiversity. Aber et al.
(2001) discuss the role that different models play in assessing impacts of
multiple stressors on effects of global change on forests. Dale and Rauscher
(1994) point out that different models should be used to address unique
levels of biological organization (global, regional, community, and tree) and
impacts. No one model can consider them all. Furthermore, economics is a
primary factor in deforestation; Kaimowitz and Angelsen (1998) document
that modeling is a primary tool in addressing social and economic aspects
of forest loss.
15.2.3.2 Desertification
Today, some 40%, or 60 million km
2 , of the world’s land area is classified
as having a dry climate, with some 10 million km
2 of this land being considered desert (Houghton 1994). Desertification occurs when a vegetated
area, such as a steppe, through natural or human-induced processes loses
vegetative cover, allowing increased soil erosion, primarily by wind. This
15. Using Models for Environmental Security
297