15. Using Models for Environmental Security
295
production and
possible wheat growing in uncertain
yield very difficult increased north hurt; could long-term
to predict, but production have moderate impacts
crops are
increases in the south
sensitive to temperature and
moisture
Human Changes in Inundation of Land subsidence No large Flooding of
Increased exposure to No large
settlements energy use; lowland cities; in lowlands, impacts
more inhabited natural disasters;
impacts
increased salt water salt water
areas; cooling urban water supplies expected
natural hazards intrusion into intrusion in
demands higher, threatened; sanitation
water supplies in water supplies
heating and waste disposal
lowlands demands lower problems expand
Coastal Up to
Large and Japanese No large Risk of storm
Coastal erosion in Highly
systems 19,000 km
2
productive industry in issues
surges in central coastal areas, vulnerable to
inundated; lowlands flooded; coastal zones;
lowland coasts particularly in storm- flooding and
23,000 km
2
more natural large areas
of Holland, impacted west Africa; inundation
added to hazards impacts; inundated
Germany, flooding of Nile Delta
floodplain millions displaced
Russia, and of concern
by 1-m sea rise
Ukraine
Human None predicted Increase in
Increased Small No major All diseases exacerSmall increases
health vector- and transmission of increases in changes
bated by malnutrition in disease and
water-borne vector-borne disease and
would damage the heat-induced
diseases, malaria, disease
heat induced health of Africans health problems
dengue, and health
schistosomiasis problems
Table 15.1 (Continued)
295
production and
possible wheat growing in uncertain
yield very difficult increased north hurt; could long-term
to predict, but production have moderate impacts
crops are
increases in the south
sensitive to temperature and
moisture
Human Changes in Inundation of Land subsidence No large Flooding of
Increased exposure to No large
settlements energy use; lowland cities; in lowlands, impacts
more inhabited natural disasters;
impacts
increased salt water salt water
areas; cooling urban water supplies expected
natural hazards intrusion into intrusion in
demands higher, threatened; sanitation
water supplies in water supplies
heating and waste disposal
lowlands demands lower problems expand
Coastal Up to
Large and Japanese No large Risk of storm
Coastal erosion in Highly
systems 19,000 km
2
productive industry in issues
surges in central coastal areas, vulnerable to
inundated; lowlands flooded; coastal zones;
lowland coasts particularly in storm- flooding and
23,000 km
2
more natural large areas
of Holland, impacted west Africa; inundation
added to hazards impacts; inundated
Germany, flooding of Nile Delta
floodplain millions displaced
Russia, and of concern
by 1-m sea rise
Ukraine
Human None predicted Increase in
Increased Small No major All diseases exacerSmall increases
health vector- and transmission of increases in changes
bated by malnutrition in disease and
water-borne vector-borne disease and
would damage the heat-induced
diseases, malaria, disease
heat induced health of Africans health problems
dengue, and health
schistosomiasis problems
Table 15.1 (Continued)