An unfortunate sideline in the early work on environmental security was
that, as the concept developed, it was couched in the old civics debate of
whether the government should spend its money on “guns or butter.” In
hindsight, it certainly appears that Myers was on target, at least in identifying future environmental security issues. It is also understandable that
mainstream security leaders did not embrace his concepts in national
security thinking, considering Myers’ view that reduced military spending
was the appropriate source for funding environmental security initiatives.
This rejection may be one reason that environmental security never
received full consideration within security policy discussions.
Today, the environmental security debate flourishes among social and
political science scholars who work to redefine security, define environmental security, and predict the political and social responses to environmental scarcities. Homer-Dixon (1991; 1994), Levy (1995), and others
have helped develop and focus the early work of Myers (1993) and other
scholars into a better understanding of how environmental issues will
impact security in the future. Debates have centered primarily on defining
environmental security and applying political science approaches to analyze
how developing countries will respond to environmental stress factors.
Although these debates and discussions raise many challenging social
issues, it is not a goal here to enter into that fray.
This chapter is intended to focus on where and how ecological modeling
must play a role in environmental security. Modeling can answer the
questions posed by strategic analysts if results from ecological models
are provided in a manner understandable to political scientists and policy
makers.
15.2 Global Environmental Security Issues
The issues selected for this analysis are a compilation of environmental
stresses identified in works published by the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency (USEPA 1999) and the Army Environmental Policy Institute
(Glenn et al. 1998; Lee 1999). Note that population trend analyses are
included here even though population has not generally been considered
an environmental issue. Specialists in the field of human geography are
making strong arguments that it should be so viewed because humans are
part of the global ecosystem. It is becoming increasingly clear that one
cannot consider environmental security issues without concurrently examining population trends, particularly in a regional context. For example,
consider the water scarcity issues in several regions of the United States.
Water scarcity is caused by pollution of existing sources, reduction of available supplies, or increases in demand from either population increases or
per capita consumption. In reality, most cases of regional water scarcity
result from all of these factors occurring at the same time. Clearly then,
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Wendell Chris King and Virginia H. Dale
that, as the concept developed, it was couched in the old civics debate of
whether the government should spend its money on “guns or butter.” In
hindsight, it certainly appears that Myers was on target, at least in identifying future environmental security issues. It is also understandable that
mainstream security leaders did not embrace his concepts in national
security thinking, considering Myers’ view that reduced military spending
was the appropriate source for funding environmental security initiatives.
This rejection may be one reason that environmental security never
received full consideration within security policy discussions.
Today, the environmental security debate flourishes among social and
political science scholars who work to redefine security, define environmental security, and predict the political and social responses to environmental scarcities. Homer-Dixon (1991; 1994), Levy (1995), and others
have helped develop and focus the early work of Myers (1993) and other
scholars into a better understanding of how environmental issues will
impact security in the future. Debates have centered primarily on defining
environmental security and applying political science approaches to analyze
how developing countries will respond to environmental stress factors.
Although these debates and discussions raise many challenging social
issues, it is not a goal here to enter into that fray.
This chapter is intended to focus on where and how ecological modeling
must play a role in environmental security. Modeling can answer the
questions posed by strategic analysts if results from ecological models
are provided in a manner understandable to political scientists and policy
makers.
15.2 Global Environmental Security Issues
The issues selected for this analysis are a compilation of environmental
stresses identified in works published by the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency (USEPA 1999) and the Army Environmental Policy Institute
(Glenn et al. 1998; Lee 1999). Note that population trend analyses are
included here even though population has not generally been considered
an environmental issue. Specialists in the field of human geography are
making strong arguments that it should be so viewed because humans are
part of the global ecosystem. It is becoming increasingly clear that one
cannot consider environmental security issues without concurrently examining population trends, particularly in a regional context. For example,
consider the water scarcity issues in several regions of the United States.
Water scarcity is caused by pollution of existing sources, reduction of available supplies, or increases in demand from either population increases or
per capita consumption. In reality, most cases of regional water scarcity
result from all of these factors occurring at the same time. Clearly then,
290
Wendell Chris King and Virginia H. Dale