and information. The process of modeling can serve this consensusbuilding function. It can help to build mutual understanding, solicit input
from a broad range of stakeholder groups, and maintain a substantive discussion among members of these groups. What is required is a new role for
modeling as a tool in building a broad consensus not only across academic
disciplines but also between science and policy (Costanza and Ruth 1998;
Yankelovich 1991; Weisbord 1992).
14.5.1 Modeling and Consensus Building
The consensus-building function of the modeling process can be facilitated
with a three-stage approach to collaborative management (Costanza and
Ruth 1998). The first stage uses collaborative development of a highgenerality, low-resolution scoping and consensus-building model to involve
a broad representation of stakeholder groups affected by the problem.
Graphic modeling tools make it feasible to involve a group of modeling
novices in the construction of relatively complex models, as long as a few
people competent in modeling act as facilitators. The projected graphical
representation of the model can serve as a blackboard for group brainstorming, allowing students, educators, policymakers, scientists, and stakeholders to all be involved in the modeling process. Using the model as
the topic of group discussion allows investigation of new scenarios and
testing of new ideas. The model develops and evolves through this collaborative process of exploration. When applied in this manner, the process
of creating a model may be more valuable than the finished product
because most of the learning occurs during the collaborative development
process.
The second stage of building consensus uses models that are more
detailed and that include realistic attempts to replicate the dynamics of the
complex system of interest. This stage involves collecting large amounts of
historical data for calibration and testing and then performing a detailed
analysis of the uncertainties in the model. It may involve traditional
“experts” and is concerned with analyzing the details of historical development of a particular system with an eye toward developing specific scenarios or policy options in the next stage. It is still critical to maintain
stakeholder involvement and interaction at this stage. This involvement
may include the exchange of models and regular workshops and meetings
to discuss model progress and results.
The third stage of building consensus with management models is
focused on producing scenarios and management options in the context of
adaptive feedback and monitoring. This stage is based on the earlier scoping
and research models. It is also necessary to place the modeling process
within the larger framework of adaptive management (Holling 1978) if
management is to be effective. Adaptive management views regional policy
exploration as experiments, where interventions at several scales are made
14. Educational Investments
279
from a broad range of stakeholder groups, and maintain a substantive discussion among members of these groups. What is required is a new role for
modeling as a tool in building a broad consensus not only across academic
disciplines but also between science and policy (Costanza and Ruth 1998;
Yankelovich 1991; Weisbord 1992).
14.5.1 Modeling and Consensus Building
The consensus-building function of the modeling process can be facilitated
with a three-stage approach to collaborative management (Costanza and
Ruth 1998). The first stage uses collaborative development of a highgenerality, low-resolution scoping and consensus-building model to involve
a broad representation of stakeholder groups affected by the problem.
Graphic modeling tools make it feasible to involve a group of modeling
novices in the construction of relatively complex models, as long as a few
people competent in modeling act as facilitators. The projected graphical
representation of the model can serve as a blackboard for group brainstorming, allowing students, educators, policymakers, scientists, and stakeholders to all be involved in the modeling process. Using the model as
the topic of group discussion allows investigation of new scenarios and
testing of new ideas. The model develops and evolves through this collaborative process of exploration. When applied in this manner, the process
of creating a model may be more valuable than the finished product
because most of the learning occurs during the collaborative development
process.
The second stage of building consensus uses models that are more
detailed and that include realistic attempts to replicate the dynamics of the
complex system of interest. This stage involves collecting large amounts of
historical data for calibration and testing and then performing a detailed
analysis of the uncertainties in the model. It may involve traditional
“experts” and is concerned with analyzing the details of historical development of a particular system with an eye toward developing specific scenarios or policy options in the next stage. It is still critical to maintain
stakeholder involvement and interaction at this stage. This involvement
may include the exchange of models and regular workshops and meetings
to discuss model progress and results.
The third stage of building consensus with management models is
focused on producing scenarios and management options in the context of
adaptive feedback and monitoring. This stage is based on the earlier scoping
and research models. It is also necessary to place the modeling process
within the larger framework of adaptive management (Holling 1978) if
management is to be effective. Adaptive management views regional policy
exploration as experiments, where interventions at several scales are made
14. Educational Investments
279