taking account of different scales of species response both temporally and
spatially (Curnutt et al. 2000).
8.7 Recommendations and Conclusions
What do these evolving approaches mean for ecological modelers?
Advances in technology have progressively allowed ecological modelers to
focus more of their creativity and intellect on the formulation of models
(design and structure) and less on the mechanics of modeling (computer
coding and debugging). Furthermore, advances in the sophistication and
reliability of ecological models have attracted the attention of decision
makers, who hope that models may provide critical understanding that is
currently lacking. However, a gap remains between the models developed
by researchers to answer research questions and the predictive tools needed
by managers for sound natural resource management decisions. The questions of interest to researchers may not be directly relevant to resource
managers. Our strongest recommendation for ecological modelers who
wish to be relevant to managers is to talk to managers! Modelers often fail
to build relevant models primarily because their perception of the needs of
managers is flawed.
However, new technologies have the potential to revolutionize the field
of ecological modeling. Technology is beginning to overcome many of the
traditional barriers to linking models and dealing with the thorny scale
issues of the past. Technology provides tremendous efficiencies by making
collaborative model development easier and allowing model components
to be used in multiple ways. However, to fully exploit this potential, modelers must constantly strive to think in new ways. It is now possible to consider how technology can be used to model systems as they are understood
rather than to struggle to represent the system within the limits of the
technology. This possibility presents great opportunity.
Ecological models will be increasingly scrutinized in the public arena.
They must be defensible (perhaps in court), transparent (in assumptions
and structure), and thoroughly documented and tested. Consequently,
modelers must give more attention to communicating with users, decision
makers, and stakeholders. The risks are high, but the needs for solid
ecological models to provide decision support are growing and are critical.
The payoff will come in the form of better resource management decisions
and increased public support for ecological modeling research.
References
Agoston, G.A. 1987. Color Theory and Its Application in Art and Design. 2d edition.
Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany.
Behan, R.W. 1990. RPA/NFMA: Solution to a nonexistent problem. Journal of
Forestry 88:20–25.
160
Eric Gustafson et al.
spatially (Curnutt et al. 2000).
8.7 Recommendations and Conclusions
What do these evolving approaches mean for ecological modelers?
Advances in technology have progressively allowed ecological modelers to
focus more of their creativity and intellect on the formulation of models
(design and structure) and less on the mechanics of modeling (computer
coding and debugging). Furthermore, advances in the sophistication and
reliability of ecological models have attracted the attention of decision
makers, who hope that models may provide critical understanding that is
currently lacking. However, a gap remains between the models developed
by researchers to answer research questions and the predictive tools needed
by managers for sound natural resource management decisions. The questions of interest to researchers may not be directly relevant to resource
managers. Our strongest recommendation for ecological modelers who
wish to be relevant to managers is to talk to managers! Modelers often fail
to build relevant models primarily because their perception of the needs of
managers is flawed.
However, new technologies have the potential to revolutionize the field
of ecological modeling. Technology is beginning to overcome many of the
traditional barriers to linking models and dealing with the thorny scale
issues of the past. Technology provides tremendous efficiencies by making
collaborative model development easier and allowing model components
to be used in multiple ways. However, to fully exploit this potential, modelers must constantly strive to think in new ways. It is now possible to consider how technology can be used to model systems as they are understood
rather than to struggle to represent the system within the limits of the
technology. This possibility presents great opportunity.
Ecological models will be increasingly scrutinized in the public arena.
They must be defensible (perhaps in court), transparent (in assumptions
and structure), and thoroughly documented and tested. Consequently,
modelers must give more attention to communicating with users, decision
makers, and stakeholders. The risks are high, but the needs for solid
ecological models to provide decision support are growing and are critical.
The payoff will come in the form of better resource management decisions
and increased public support for ecological modeling research.
References
Agoston, G.A. 1987. Color Theory and Its Application in Art and Design. 2d edition.
Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany.
Behan, R.W. 1990. RPA/NFMA: Solution to a nonexistent problem. Journal of
Forestry 88:20–25.
160
Eric Gustafson et al.