8
Evolving Approaches and
Technologies to Enhance the
Role of Ecological Modeling in
Decision Making
Eric Gustafson, John Nestler, Louis Gross,
Keith M. Reynolds, Daniel Yaussy, Thomas P. Maxwell, and
Virginia H. Dale
135
8.1 Introduction
Understanding the effects of management activities is difficult for natural
resource managers and decision makers because ecological systems are
highly complex and their behavior is difficult to predict. Furthermore, the
empirical studies necessary to illuminate all management questions quickly
become logistically complicated and cost prohibitive. Ecological models
provide a means to formalize our conceptual understanding of how an
ecological system works and allow us to check this understanding by testing
model predictions. Validated models can then be used to make predictions
about the effects of proposed management activities, giving decision makers
useful information that would not be available from empirical data.
In this chapter, we discuss evolving modeling approaches and technologies for ecological modeling and application to decision making. We begin
by discussing model conceptualization and design and showing how new
approaches to model structuring might enhance problem formulation in
decision making. We then discuss issues surrounding the construction and
implementation of ecological models after the conceptual development has
been completed and present evolving approaches that address these issues.
Finally, we discuss technologies for communicating the structure of and
output from models to improve their relevance and usefulness to decision
makers and the stakeholders in the managed system.
8.2 Model Conceptualization and Design
Perhaps the biggest problems facing decision makers are (1) forging a
consensus about what the true problems are and (2) agreeing on the data,
protocols and analytical tools that will be used to produce the information
Evolving Approaches and
Technologies to Enhance the
Role of Ecological Modeling in
Decision Making
Eric Gustafson, John Nestler, Louis Gross,
Keith M. Reynolds, Daniel Yaussy, Thomas P. Maxwell, and
Virginia H. Dale
135
8.1 Introduction
Understanding the effects of management activities is difficult for natural
resource managers and decision makers because ecological systems are
highly complex and their behavior is difficult to predict. Furthermore, the
empirical studies necessary to illuminate all management questions quickly
become logistically complicated and cost prohibitive. Ecological models
provide a means to formalize our conceptual understanding of how an
ecological system works and allow us to check this understanding by testing
model predictions. Validated models can then be used to make predictions
about the effects of proposed management activities, giving decision makers
useful information that would not be available from empirical data.
In this chapter, we discuss evolving modeling approaches and technologies for ecological modeling and application to decision making. We begin
by discussing model conceptualization and design and showing how new
approaches to model structuring might enhance problem formulation in
decision making. We then discuss issues surrounding the construction and
implementation of ecological models after the conceptual development has
been completed and present evolving approaches that address these issues.
Finally, we discuss technologies for communicating the structure of and
output from models to improve their relevance and usefulness to decision
makers and the stakeholders in the managed system.
8.2 Model Conceptualization and Design
Perhaps the biggest problems facing decision makers are (1) forging a
consensus about what the true problems are and (2) agreeing on the data,
protocols and analytical tools that will be used to produce the information