351
considering global events as well as regional or
local ones. Catastrophism is inherent in our society and science and media have their responsibility on this atmosphere. Related to the future of
coral reefs, the catastrophic predictions have
been a debate among scientisits after some of
them published worst-case scenarios at the
expense of truth (Grigg 1992 ; Maynard et al.
2008 ; Hoegh- Guldberg 2009 ). Beyond publishing results of their research, scientists entitled
their papers with a catastrophic resonance for different reasons. One of them is for authors to catch
the attention of their colleagues and of decision
makers on the importance of their research which
needs more support. The example of the outbreaks of the crown-of-thorns starfi sh on the
Great Barrier Reef in Australia in the 1960s is
demonstrative. The consequences of these outbreaks, which are natural events, caused important mortality of the corals. To fi ght against what
would be a disastrous situation ecologically for
the barrier reef and economically for the country
(due to tourism), sensational papers were published in science periodicals as well as in newspapers and amplifi ed by the media with
subsequent political reaction. It was the start
point of the important development of Australian
research on coral reef (Wilkinson 1990 ).
8
Conclusion
It is clear as we wrote before that ‘the future of
coral reefs is disquieting in the context of global
change with demographic pressure which will
increase, especially in coastal areas, and predictions of climate change at a global scale’.
Nevertheless, considering the past evolution of
our knowledge on factors infl uencing the future
of coral reefs and predictions that have been
made and overall taking note of all changes that
occurred in knowledge and predictions over
time, we cannot conclude that the coral reef
ecosystem will collapse before the end of this
century.
Such an issue will be a ruin and a disaster for
a million of people in a disordered world, probably with many other modifi cations. This is the
challenge for humanity. For the planet, it will be
one more catastrophic mass extinction according
to Veron ( 2008 ) since we consider that life
appeared on our planet. Veron listed the causes of
past fi ve extinctions and observed that the primary causes were linked to the carbon cycle and
concluded that the ‘ocean acidifi cation has the
potential to trigger a sixth mass extinction’. It
would take only some million years for a gap on
the reef phenomenon on our planet, waiting for
other new extinctions and other gaps until the end
of its existence – the challenge of life and reefs
on our planet.
Acknowledgements We thank and greatly appreciate
comments from two colleagues who reviewed the manuscript: Hubert Ceccaldi who organised the 15th FrenchJapanese Symposium on Oceanography in Marseille and
François Ramade. Thanks to Patrick Prouzet for the layout recommendations and help.
References
Adjeroud M, Michonneau F, Edmunds PJ, Chancerelle Y,
Lison de Loma T, Penin L, Thibaut L, Vidal-Dupiol J,
Salvat B, Galzin R (2009) Recurrent disturbances,
recovery trajectories and resilience of coral assemblages on a South Central Pacifi c reef. Coral Reefs
28:775–780
Babin C (2007) Autour du catastrophisme. Vuibert, Paris,
pp 1–169
Banner AH (1974) Kaneohe Bay, Hawaii: urban pollution
and a coral reef ecosystem. Proc Second Coral Reef
Symp Brisb 2:685–702
Bell JD, Kronen M, Vunisea A, Nash WJ, Keeble G,
Demmke A, Pontifex S, Andrefouet S (2009) Planning
the use of fi sh for food security in the Pacifi c. Mar
Policy 33:64–76
Bouchet P (2006) The magnitude of marine biodiversity.
In: Duarte CM (ed) The exploration of marine biodiversity, scientifi c and technological challenges.
Fundacion BBVA, Bilbao, Espana, pp 33–64
Brander LM, Rehdanz K, Tol RSJ, Van Beukering PJH
(2009) The economic impact of ocean acidifi cation on
coral reefs. ESRI Work Pap 282:1–33
Brown BE (1997) Disturbances to reefs in recent times.
In: Birkeland C (ed) Life and death of coral reefs.
Chapman and Hall, New York, pp 354–378
Burge CA, Eakin CM, Friedman CS, Froelich B,
Hershberger PK, Hofmann EE, Petes LE, Prager KC,
Weil E, Willis BL, Ford SE, Harvell CD (2014)
Climate change infl uences on marine infectious diseases: implications for management and society. Annu
Rev Mar Sci 6:249–77
Health and Degradation of Coral Reefs: Assessment and Future
considering global events as well as regional or
local ones. Catastrophism is inherent in our society and science and media have their responsibility on this atmosphere. Related to the future of
coral reefs, the catastrophic predictions have
been a debate among scientisits after some of
them published worst-case scenarios at the
expense of truth (Grigg 1992 ; Maynard et al.
2008 ; Hoegh- Guldberg 2009 ). Beyond publishing results of their research, scientists entitled
their papers with a catastrophic resonance for different reasons. One of them is for authors to catch
the attention of their colleagues and of decision
makers on the importance of their research which
needs more support. The example of the outbreaks of the crown-of-thorns starfi sh on the
Great Barrier Reef in Australia in the 1960s is
demonstrative. The consequences of these outbreaks, which are natural events, caused important mortality of the corals. To fi ght against what
would be a disastrous situation ecologically for
the barrier reef and economically for the country
(due to tourism), sensational papers were published in science periodicals as well as in newspapers and amplifi ed by the media with
subsequent political reaction. It was the start
point of the important development of Australian
research on coral reef (Wilkinson 1990 ).
8
Conclusion
It is clear as we wrote before that ‘the future of
coral reefs is disquieting in the context of global
change with demographic pressure which will
increase, especially in coastal areas, and predictions of climate change at a global scale’.
Nevertheless, considering the past evolution of
our knowledge on factors infl uencing the future
of coral reefs and predictions that have been
made and overall taking note of all changes that
occurred in knowledge and predictions over
time, we cannot conclude that the coral reef
ecosystem will collapse before the end of this
century.
Such an issue will be a ruin and a disaster for
a million of people in a disordered world, probably with many other modifi cations. This is the
challenge for humanity. For the planet, it will be
one more catastrophic mass extinction according
to Veron ( 2008 ) since we consider that life
appeared on our planet. Veron listed the causes of
past fi ve extinctions and observed that the primary causes were linked to the carbon cycle and
concluded that the ‘ocean acidifi cation has the
potential to trigger a sixth mass extinction’. It
would take only some million years for a gap on
the reef phenomenon on our planet, waiting for
other new extinctions and other gaps until the end
of its existence – the challenge of life and reefs
on our planet.
Acknowledgements We thank and greatly appreciate
comments from two colleagues who reviewed the manuscript: Hubert Ceccaldi who organised the 15th FrenchJapanese Symposium on Oceanography in Marseille and
François Ramade. Thanks to Patrick Prouzet for the layout recommendations and help.
References
Adjeroud M, Michonneau F, Edmunds PJ, Chancerelle Y,
Lison de Loma T, Penin L, Thibaut L, Vidal-Dupiol J,
Salvat B, Galzin R (2009) Recurrent disturbances,
recovery trajectories and resilience of coral assemblages on a South Central Pacifi c reef. Coral Reefs
28:775–780
Babin C (2007) Autour du catastrophisme. Vuibert, Paris,
pp 1–169
Banner AH (1974) Kaneohe Bay, Hawaii: urban pollution
and a coral reef ecosystem. Proc Second Coral Reef
Symp Brisb 2:685–702
Bell JD, Kronen M, Vunisea A, Nash WJ, Keeble G,
Demmke A, Pontifex S, Andrefouet S (2009) Planning
the use of fi sh for food security in the Pacifi c. Mar
Policy 33:64–76
Bouchet P (2006) The magnitude of marine biodiversity.
In: Duarte CM (ed) The exploration of marine biodiversity, scientifi c and technological challenges.
Fundacion BBVA, Bilbao, Espana, pp 33–64
Brander LM, Rehdanz K, Tol RSJ, Van Beukering PJH
(2009) The economic impact of ocean acidifi cation on
coral reefs. ESRI Work Pap 282:1–33
Brown BE (1997) Disturbances to reefs in recent times.
In: Birkeland C (ed) Life and death of coral reefs.
Chapman and Hall, New York, pp 354–378
Burge CA, Eakin CM, Friedman CS, Froelich B,
Hershberger PK, Hofmann EE, Petes LE, Prager KC,
Weil E, Willis BL, Ford SE, Harvell CD (2014)
Climate change infl uences on marine infectious diseases: implications for management and society. Annu
Rev Mar Sci 6:249–77
Health and Degradation of Coral Reefs: Assessment and Future