54
3 Economic Framework of Conservation
Fig. 3.2. The estimated value ofPGRFA over time
Value
Heritable Value
Insurance Value - - - - - - -
Existence Value
Time
Source:
Virchow, 1997a
The breeding value increases in the medium term because of improved
technologies and information systems, which simplify their incorporation into
existing modem varieties. In the long run, with more improved technologies, the
boundaries between species will be overcome and breeders will be able to
incorporate genetically coded information from wild plants, micro-organisms and
animals into crops, as it is achieved already by introducing insect resistance genes
from bacteria into crop plants (Smith and Salhuana, 1996). In addition, as von
Braun and Virchow point out (1997), new and improved methods of
biotechnology as well as the reproduction of existing and design of new genes will
lead to the establishment of a virtual genetic base (e.g., preparation of amino acid
sequences) and a combination of genetic information. This point is supported by
the prediction of Frankel et al. (1995) that synthetic resistance genes are likely to
be developed. In the long run this could curb the demand for genetic resources as a
raw material for genetic information, particularly if in vitro reproduction of
genetic information becomes cheaper than conservation of genetic resources. This
could in tum, lead to the substitution of biotechnological (in vitro) duplicated
genes for natural genes and agents. Nevertheless, as long as the in situ and ex situ
conservation of genetic resources are still the more cost-effective methods, and
assessments of the efficacy of substitutes speculative, the above mentioned
potential of substitution will remain confined to a few specific products.
Because of this long-term development the value for plant genetic resources of
utilized crops and their wild relatives will decrease significantly. The value will
3 Economic Framework of Conservation
Fig. 3.2. The estimated value ofPGRFA over time
Value
Heritable Value
Insurance Value - - - - - - -
Existence Value
Time
Source:
Virchow, 1997a
The breeding value increases in the medium term because of improved
technologies and information systems, which simplify their incorporation into
existing modem varieties. In the long run, with more improved technologies, the
boundaries between species will be overcome and breeders will be able to
incorporate genetically coded information from wild plants, micro-organisms and
animals into crops, as it is achieved already by introducing insect resistance genes
from bacteria into crop plants (Smith and Salhuana, 1996). In addition, as von
Braun and Virchow point out (1997), new and improved methods of
biotechnology as well as the reproduction of existing and design of new genes will
lead to the establishment of a virtual genetic base (e.g., preparation of amino acid
sequences) and a combination of genetic information. This point is supported by
the prediction of Frankel et al. (1995) that synthetic resistance genes are likely to
be developed. In the long run this could curb the demand for genetic resources as a
raw material for genetic information, particularly if in vitro reproduction of
genetic information becomes cheaper than conservation of genetic resources. This
could in tum, lead to the substitution of biotechnological (in vitro) duplicated
genes for natural genes and agents. Nevertheless, as long as the in situ and ex situ
conservation of genetic resources are still the more cost-effective methods, and
assessments of the efficacy of substitutes speculative, the above mentioned
potential of substitution will remain confined to a few specific products.
Because of this long-term development the value for plant genetic resources of
utilized crops and their wild relatives will decrease significantly. The value will