modeling in the hands of the uninformed can be a dangerous thing. Hence, as
modeling becomes more widely used, it is essential for those who will use the
output as well as those who will do the modeling to learn the complexities and
limitations to the greatest extent possible; the touchstone of democracy is an
informed electorate.
This book could not have been imagined 20 years ago, or consummated even
10 years ago. The advent of computers indeed introduced a new dimension, the
ability to go beyond analytical treatments and to use simulation as an experimental
tool for much more complex models. High-speed computation has led to increases
in what can be done at a dizzying rate. But the initial result of this revolution was to
replace one kind of theoretical elite—the mathematician—with another—the computer nerd. The power of the modeling was no more in the hands of the proletariat
than it was when the keys to the kingdom were in the intricacies of dynamical
systems theory. Hannon and Ruth have set out to change that. Using STELLA as a
platform, they have produced the modeling cookbook for those who thought they
hated modeling. Their goal, admirably achieved, was to show that some forms of
modeling are no harder to operate than a VCR, and that there are intellectual and
practical rewards waiting for those willing to venture forth.
The student of this text will be well rewarded, learning about modeling in the
only way one really can. . .by putting one’s modeling muddy boots on and slogging
through exercises. Along the way, the hardy traveler will enjoy a wonderful tour of
a wide range of applications in ecology, while learning both techniques and pitfalls.
Modeling is just one tool available to the researcher, to be used in concert with
observation, experimentation, and hypothesis construction. Simulation such as that
taught in this book is just one part of the process, to be combined with analysis and
thought. But it is a powerful tool for exploring the consequences of our assumptions, and Hannon and Ruth have provided an introduction that opens this world to a
far greater part of the research community than could have been included a decade
ago. Word processing seemed forbidding when it was first made available, but now
is a skill performed more easily by most Americans than arithmetic or spelling.
Modeling too can be made easily available, at least in its simplest forms. Word
processing is no substitute for thoughtful composition, and STELLA similarly has
limits. For the advanced researcher, or one who wants to become one, more
sophisticated approaches beckon. Nonetheless, we are nearing the day when
every researcher will be able to use simple tools such as STELLA to construct
representations of their hypotheses, and use these to explore broad classes of
scenarios unavailable through experimentation. Read on and join the revolution.
Princeton, NJ
Simon A. Levin
August 21, 1995
vi
Foreword to the First Edition
modeling becomes more widely used, it is essential for those who will use the
output as well as those who will do the modeling to learn the complexities and
limitations to the greatest extent possible; the touchstone of democracy is an
informed electorate.
This book could not have been imagined 20 years ago, or consummated even
10 years ago. The advent of computers indeed introduced a new dimension, the
ability to go beyond analytical treatments and to use simulation as an experimental
tool for much more complex models. High-speed computation has led to increases
in what can be done at a dizzying rate. But the initial result of this revolution was to
replace one kind of theoretical elite—the mathematician—with another—the computer nerd. The power of the modeling was no more in the hands of the proletariat
than it was when the keys to the kingdom were in the intricacies of dynamical
systems theory. Hannon and Ruth have set out to change that. Using STELLA as a
platform, they have produced the modeling cookbook for those who thought they
hated modeling. Their goal, admirably achieved, was to show that some forms of
modeling are no harder to operate than a VCR, and that there are intellectual and
practical rewards waiting for those willing to venture forth.
The student of this text will be well rewarded, learning about modeling in the
only way one really can. . .by putting one’s modeling muddy boots on and slogging
through exercises. Along the way, the hardy traveler will enjoy a wonderful tour of
a wide range of applications in ecology, while learning both techniques and pitfalls.
Modeling is just one tool available to the researcher, to be used in concert with
observation, experimentation, and hypothesis construction. Simulation such as that
taught in this book is just one part of the process, to be combined with analysis and
thought. But it is a powerful tool for exploring the consequences of our assumptions, and Hannon and Ruth have provided an introduction that opens this world to a
far greater part of the research community than could have been included a decade
ago. Word processing seemed forbidding when it was first made available, but now
is a skill performed more easily by most Americans than arithmetic or spelling.
Modeling too can be made easily available, at least in its simplest forms. Word
processing is no substitute for thoughtful composition, and STELLA similarly has
limits. For the advanced researcher, or one who wants to become one, more
sophisticated approaches beckon. Nonetheless, we are nearing the day when
every researcher will be able to use simple tools such as STELLA to construct
representations of their hypotheses, and use these to explore broad classes of
scenarios unavailable through experimentation. Read on and join the revolution.
Princeton, NJ
Simon A. Levin
August 21, 1995
vi
Foreword to the First Edition