186
Lloyd Goldwasser, Scott Ferson, and Lev Ginzburg
Burgman MA, Ferson S, Ak¸ cakaya HR (1993) Risk assessment in conservation biology.
Chapman and Hall, London
Burnham KP, Anderson DR, White GC (1994) Estimation of vital rates of the Northern
Spotted Owl. Appendix J, Final supplemental environmental impact statement on management of habitat for late-succession and old-growth forest related species within the
range of the Northern Spotted Owl. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, and
U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, Portland, OR
Caswell H (1989) Matrix population models: construction, analysis and interpretation.
Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, MA
Ferson S (1990) RAMAS/stage: generalized stage-based modeling for population dynamics. Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, NY
Ferson S, Ginzburg LR (1996) Different methods are needed to propagate ignorance and
variability. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 54:133–144
Ferson S, Ginzburg LR, Silvers A (1989) Extreme event risk analysis for age-structured
populations. Ecological Modelling 47:175–187
Forsman E (1994) Letter to J Miles (Forest Practice Board member, Washington), April 19,
1994
Forsman ED, Giese A, Kelso D, Manson D, Maurice K, Swingle J, Townsend M, Zisa J
(1993) Demographic characteristics of Spotted Owls on the Olympic Peninsula, 1987–
1993. In: Jones J (ed) Annual report of the USDA Forest Service Wildlife Ecology Team.
Ecosystem Processes Research Program, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Olympia,
WA, pp 1–11
Forsman ED, Sovern SG, Seaman DE, Maurice KJ, Taylor M, Zisa JJ (1996) Demography
of the Northern Spotted Owl on the Olympic Peninsula and east slope of the Cascade
Range. Washington Studies in Avian Biology 17:21–30
Gilpin M, Soul´ e ME (1986) Minimum viable populations: processes of species extinction.
In: Soul´ e ME (ed) Conservation biology: the science of scarcity and diversity. Sinauer
Associates, Sunderland, MA, pp 19–34
Ginzburg LR, Slobodkin LB, Johnson K, Bindman AG (1982) Quasiextinction probabilities as a measure of impact on population growth. Risk Analysis 2:171–181
Gutierrez RJ (1996) Biology and distribution of the Northern Spotted Owl. Studies in Avian
Biology 17:2–5
Hanson E, Hayes D, Hicks L, Young L, Buchanan J (1993) Spotted Owl Habitat in
Washington: unpublished report by the Spotted Owl Scientific Advisory Group to the
Washington Forest Practices Board, Washington Department of Natural Resources,
Olympia, WA
Holthausen RS, Raphael MG, McKelvey KS, Forsman ED, Starkey EE, Seaman DE (1994)
The contribution of federal and non-federal habitat to persistence of the Northern Spotted
Owl on the Olympic Peninsula, Washington. Report of the Reanalysis Team, General
Technical Report PNW-GTR-352. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, OR
IUCN (1994) International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources,
draft red list categories. World Conservation Union, Gland, Switzerland
Kenney D (1994) Habitat assessments for Olympic Peninsula Spotted Owl population.
Unpublished report prepared for Rayonier, Inc, Olympia, WA
Lande R, Orzack SH (1988) Extinction dynamics of age-structured populations in a fluctuating environment. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA 85:7418–
7421
Lloyd Goldwasser, Scott Ferson, and Lev Ginzburg
Burgman MA, Ferson S, Ak¸ cakaya HR (1993) Risk assessment in conservation biology.
Chapman and Hall, London
Burnham KP, Anderson DR, White GC (1994) Estimation of vital rates of the Northern
Spotted Owl. Appendix J, Final supplemental environmental impact statement on management of habitat for late-succession and old-growth forest related species within the
range of the Northern Spotted Owl. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, and
U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, Portland, OR
Caswell H (1989) Matrix population models: construction, analysis and interpretation.
Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, MA
Ferson S (1990) RAMAS/stage: generalized stage-based modeling for population dynamics. Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, NY
Ferson S, Ginzburg LR (1996) Different methods are needed to propagate ignorance and
variability. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 54:133–144
Ferson S, Ginzburg LR, Silvers A (1989) Extreme event risk analysis for age-structured
populations. Ecological Modelling 47:175–187
Forsman E (1994) Letter to J Miles (Forest Practice Board member, Washington), April 19,
1994
Forsman ED, Giese A, Kelso D, Manson D, Maurice K, Swingle J, Townsend M, Zisa J
(1993) Demographic characteristics of Spotted Owls on the Olympic Peninsula, 1987–
1993. In: Jones J (ed) Annual report of the USDA Forest Service Wildlife Ecology Team.
Ecosystem Processes Research Program, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Olympia,
WA, pp 1–11
Forsman ED, Sovern SG, Seaman DE, Maurice KJ, Taylor M, Zisa JJ (1996) Demography
of the Northern Spotted Owl on the Olympic Peninsula and east slope of the Cascade
Range. Washington Studies in Avian Biology 17:21–30
Gilpin M, Soul´ e ME (1986) Minimum viable populations: processes of species extinction.
In: Soul´ e ME (ed) Conservation biology: the science of scarcity and diversity. Sinauer
Associates, Sunderland, MA, pp 19–34
Ginzburg LR, Slobodkin LB, Johnson K, Bindman AG (1982) Quasiextinction probabilities as a measure of impact on population growth. Risk Analysis 2:171–181
Gutierrez RJ (1996) Biology and distribution of the Northern Spotted Owl. Studies in Avian
Biology 17:2–5
Hanson E, Hayes D, Hicks L, Young L, Buchanan J (1993) Spotted Owl Habitat in
Washington: unpublished report by the Spotted Owl Scientific Advisory Group to the
Washington Forest Practices Board, Washington Department of Natural Resources,
Olympia, WA
Holthausen RS, Raphael MG, McKelvey KS, Forsman ED, Starkey EE, Seaman DE (1994)
The contribution of federal and non-federal habitat to persistence of the Northern Spotted
Owl on the Olympic Peninsula, Washington. Report of the Reanalysis Team, General
Technical Report PNW-GTR-352. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, OR
IUCN (1994) International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources,
draft red list categories. World Conservation Union, Gland, Switzerland
Kenney D (1994) Habitat assessments for Olympic Peninsula Spotted Owl population.
Unpublished report prepared for Rayonier, Inc, Olympia, WA
Lande R, Orzack SH (1988) Extinction dynamics of age-structured populations in a fluctuating environment. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA 85:7418–
7421