8
Y. Fouquet and D. Lacroix
Framework
Within this general background, the pivotal question of the study is that of evaluating the potential of the main deep-sea mineral resources (metal ores and natural hydrogen) that represent a strategic goal for France and the European Union for 2030.
This study aims to answer three main questions on these resources by 2030:
• What scientific and technological knowledge is required for their discovery and
exploitation?
• What socio-economic conditions are liable to make their exploitation competitive?
• What environmental impacts of their exploitation can be foreseen?
During the first Steering Committee meeting on 30th September 2009, at Ifremer
headquarters, the 24 organisations represented—companies, ministries, universities
and specialised research institutes—defined the study’s characteristics. These characteristics can be summarised as follows:
• Time frame: 2030.
• Scope: the world, with a particular focus on France within Europe.
• Technologies: all marine technologies, excluding fossil fuels.
• Method: methods, trends, impacts and scenarios.
• Time allocated: 1 year.
Methodology
In terms of methodology, this analysis drew upon the representation of the studied
system (global environment, review of current scientific knowledge, sectors, challenges for stakeholders) before exploring possible evolutions of major variables,
followed by the conditions required to harness the potential of these resources. It
was therefore possible to identify the dynamics relating to the main sectors and
draw lessons in order to define action proposals, including a national research and
development programme.
This work mobilised around 30 experts over a ten-month period, half of which
worked within a permanent Working Group. The methodology was defined by Gerpa, a
firm specialised in industry studies. The method consisted in cross-analysing the evolution of 17 variables up to 2030 according to 3 contrasting macro-scenarios whose main
determinants were as follows: markets, international trade, legal status of international
waters, national and/or multinational interests and critical mineral supply security, impacts on the deep-sea environment, stakeholder involvement and societal perception.
The ten working meetings, as well as the three Steering Committee meetings, were
planned over 10 months, which facilitated the continuity of efforts and progress monitoring. These meetings were held between 30th September 2009 (first Steering Committee meeting) and 7th July 2010 (last Steering Committee meeting). The Working
Group also heard 14 experts to improve its knowledge of the subjects studied.
Y. Fouquet and D. Lacroix
Framework
Within this general background, the pivotal question of the study is that of evaluating the potential of the main deep-sea mineral resources (metal ores and natural hydrogen) that represent a strategic goal for France and the European Union for 2030.
This study aims to answer three main questions on these resources by 2030:
• What scientific and technological knowledge is required for their discovery and
exploitation?
• What socio-economic conditions are liable to make their exploitation competitive?
• What environmental impacts of their exploitation can be foreseen?
During the first Steering Committee meeting on 30th September 2009, at Ifremer
headquarters, the 24 organisations represented—companies, ministries, universities
and specialised research institutes—defined the study’s characteristics. These characteristics can be summarised as follows:
• Time frame: 2030.
• Scope: the world, with a particular focus on France within Europe.
• Technologies: all marine technologies, excluding fossil fuels.
• Method: methods, trends, impacts and scenarios.
• Time allocated: 1 year.
Methodology
In terms of methodology, this analysis drew upon the representation of the studied
system (global environment, review of current scientific knowledge, sectors, challenges for stakeholders) before exploring possible evolutions of major variables,
followed by the conditions required to harness the potential of these resources. It
was therefore possible to identify the dynamics relating to the main sectors and
draw lessons in order to define action proposals, including a national research and
development programme.
This work mobilised around 30 experts over a ten-month period, half of which
worked within a permanent Working Group. The methodology was defined by Gerpa, a
firm specialised in industry studies. The method consisted in cross-analysing the evolution of 17 variables up to 2030 according to 3 contrasting macro-scenarios whose main
determinants were as follows: markets, international trade, legal status of international
waters, national and/or multinational interests and critical mineral supply security, impacts on the deep-sea environment, stakeholder involvement and societal perception.
The ten working meetings, as well as the three Steering Committee meetings, were
planned over 10 months, which facilitated the continuity of efforts and progress monitoring. These meetings were held between 30th September 2009 (first Steering Committee meeting) and 7th July 2010 (last Steering Committee meeting). The Working
Group also heard 14 experts to improve its knowledge of the subjects studied.