5
1 Study Summary
average consumption of rich countries (this would require quantities three times
higher). The internal production of rapidly growing countries, such as China and
India, will not be able to meet their needs. The foreseeable rise in demand, related
to world population growth and the rising standard of living in developing countries, considerably reduces the estimated lifespan of metal reserves. The problem
becomes acute if we look 30 years ahead. Exploration is therefore justified in order
to identify new reserves.
The needs generated by the constant rise in the standard of living in many large
countries imply a 7–9 % growth rate for several decades, and the maintenance of
around a 3 % growth rate in wealthy countries. This growth requires increased consumption of energy and mineral resources. This leads to serious problems in terms
of resource availability, whose limits are now better known, and raises the question
of sustainable management of the world’s development.
Developed countries are increasingly dependent on external sources of energy
and mineral resources. They represent 20 % of the world’s population, but consume
80 % of its resources. Consumption per capita is 15 to 20 times higher than that of
poor countries. If resources were to be equally shared between all the countries of
the globe, developed countries would be allocated less than a quarter of their current
consumption. This situation does not make for balance. Furthermore, in the future,
countries like India and China will place an increasing strain on access to resources.
China’s annual zinc consumption, for instance, increased from 0.66 kg per capita in
1996 to 1.07 kg in 2000, then to 3 kg in 2010. Problems in supply are therefore unavoidable in the medium term. This issue was raised as early as 1972 in the conclusions of the Club of Rome report; even although consumption curves have changed,
the trend presented for the next 30 years remains the same.
Europe is increasingly dependent on external metal supplies. Such a situation entails high risks of shortages in the event of market tensions. During the past 5 years,
the prices of certain metals have risen by over 300 % (Fig. 1.1). After a short-lived
drop during the 2008 crisis, these prices are constantly rising once again.
Due to resource depletion, ores of declining grade are being mined at increasing
depths. However, ore concentration limits cannot be lowered below a certain level
due to the increase in the energy required for their extraction and a higher environmental impact.
Metal supplies during the coming decades will therefore involve a sustainable
component (recycling) in the metal lifecycle, as well as the discovery of new mineable deposits in areas yet subject to little exploration. The vast ocean area in which
scientific exploration has identified mineral resources therefore constitutes a potential worthy of study.
Ocean Challenges
Over the next 30 years, humanity is set to take an increasing interest in the deep-sea
environment, from a scientific point of view, but also from economic, ecological
and educational perspectives. The need for a long term strategy is becoming urgent;
1 Study Summary
average consumption of rich countries (this would require quantities three times
higher). The internal production of rapidly growing countries, such as China and
India, will not be able to meet their needs. The foreseeable rise in demand, related
to world population growth and the rising standard of living in developing countries, considerably reduces the estimated lifespan of metal reserves. The problem
becomes acute if we look 30 years ahead. Exploration is therefore justified in order
to identify new reserves.
The needs generated by the constant rise in the standard of living in many large
countries imply a 7–9 % growth rate for several decades, and the maintenance of
around a 3 % growth rate in wealthy countries. This growth requires increased consumption of energy and mineral resources. This leads to serious problems in terms
of resource availability, whose limits are now better known, and raises the question
of sustainable management of the world’s development.
Developed countries are increasingly dependent on external sources of energy
and mineral resources. They represent 20 % of the world’s population, but consume
80 % of its resources. Consumption per capita is 15 to 20 times higher than that of
poor countries. If resources were to be equally shared between all the countries of
the globe, developed countries would be allocated less than a quarter of their current
consumption. This situation does not make for balance. Furthermore, in the future,
countries like India and China will place an increasing strain on access to resources.
China’s annual zinc consumption, for instance, increased from 0.66 kg per capita in
1996 to 1.07 kg in 2000, then to 3 kg in 2010. Problems in supply are therefore unavoidable in the medium term. This issue was raised as early as 1972 in the conclusions of the Club of Rome report; even although consumption curves have changed,
the trend presented for the next 30 years remains the same.
Europe is increasingly dependent on external metal supplies. Such a situation entails high risks of shortages in the event of market tensions. During the past 5 years,
the prices of certain metals have risen by over 300 % (Fig. 1.1). After a short-lived
drop during the 2008 crisis, these prices are constantly rising once again.
Due to resource depletion, ores of declining grade are being mined at increasing
depths. However, ore concentration limits cannot be lowered below a certain level
due to the increase in the energy required for their extraction and a higher environmental impact.
Metal supplies during the coming decades will therefore involve a sustainable
component (recycling) in the metal lifecycle, as well as the discovery of new mineable deposits in areas yet subject to little exploration. The vast ocean area in which
scientific exploration has identified mineral resources therefore constitutes a potential worthy of study.
Ocean Challenges
Over the next 30 years, humanity is set to take an increasing interest in the deep-sea
environment, from a scientific point of view, but also from economic, ecological
and educational perspectives. The need for a long term strategy is becoming urgent;