501
health. In regions where hydropower makes up significant fraction of
electrical generation capacity, incorporating climate-induced weather
information into the daily operations of the facility could head off disasters.
An example is taken from a study conducted in Ethiopia with EEPCo
(Ethiopian Electric Power Company) which is the public agency responsible
for generation, transmission, and distribution. In this country, 97% of
electrical generation is from hydropower produced by Koka Dam, with
major use by heavy industry such as cement, metal, and sugar. Energy
variability of rainfall in this country leading to periods of droughts and
floods. Seasonal to inter-annual predictions offer great benefits if
hydrological indicators are used for planning by the industry. The value of
the advanced environmental information can be used as the basis of a risk
analysis to mitigate flash flood hazards and identify periods of water
scarcity. There is a need as well to incorporate surface variables
(precipitation and temperature) into hydrological forecasts. Information on
the timing, location and duration of flash floods is used for water releasing
schemes from dams by Ministry of Water Resources; and, as dam capacity is
impacted by the erosion in a basin, such information is of value to the
construction engineers.
During drought, power rationing leads to major revenue loss. In a study
conducted under the IRI program, the linkage effect of power production and
customer revenue loss was examined and determined to be approximately
$8M, enough to destabilize local economies. From these types of studies, it
was recommended that EEPCo must include seasonal forecasts into its long
term plan. It was also recommended that they produce power demand
scenarios based on seasonal rainfall outlooks. For the “provider”
community, it was recommended that the development of future models
include hydrological parameters in addition to meteorological variables, and
that they combine variability of rainfall, complex topography and behavior
of rainfall on sub grid level. The skill score of climate forecasts needs to be
improved as well as performance metrics set for the improvement in
business operations and planning.
In another IRI benchmarking study with Kenya Power and Lighting
Company (KPLC) and KenGen, it was determined that drought-induced
fuel internal to the country. In addition, to help mitigate the crisis, the World
power rationing which translated to massive layoffs. Seventy percent of the
manufacturing firms not willing to increase investment in Kenya if power
reliability issues were not addressed. In this case, the energy crisis loss to
OCEAN FORECAST FOR ECONOMIC ADVANCEMENT
generation averages growth 10%/year. There is large scale inter-annual
rationing decreased production to 40% and they had to secure an, emergency
power credit of $72M to purchase fuel since there were no sources of fossil
Bank granted $47M to import and operate generators. The economic losses
$20M /6 months with expenditure of $141M for fuel. The effect was 12 hr.
from rationing and power failure were estimated at $2M/day and KPLC lost
health. In regions where hydropower makes up significant fraction of
electrical generation capacity, incorporating climate-induced weather
information into the daily operations of the facility could head off disasters.
An example is taken from a study conducted in Ethiopia with EEPCo
(Ethiopian Electric Power Company) which is the public agency responsible
for generation, transmission, and distribution. In this country, 97% of
electrical generation is from hydropower produced by Koka Dam, with
major use by heavy industry such as cement, metal, and sugar. Energy
variability of rainfall in this country leading to periods of droughts and
floods. Seasonal to inter-annual predictions offer great benefits if
hydrological indicators are used for planning by the industry. The value of
the advanced environmental information can be used as the basis of a risk
analysis to mitigate flash flood hazards and identify periods of water
scarcity. There is a need as well to incorporate surface variables
(precipitation and temperature) into hydrological forecasts. Information on
the timing, location and duration of flash floods is used for water releasing
schemes from dams by Ministry of Water Resources; and, as dam capacity is
impacted by the erosion in a basin, such information is of value to the
construction engineers.
During drought, power rationing leads to major revenue loss. In a study
conducted under the IRI program, the linkage effect of power production and
customer revenue loss was examined and determined to be approximately
$8M, enough to destabilize local economies. From these types of studies, it
was recommended that EEPCo must include seasonal forecasts into its long
term plan. It was also recommended that they produce power demand
scenarios based on seasonal rainfall outlooks. For the “provider”
community, it was recommended that the development of future models
include hydrological parameters in addition to meteorological variables, and
that they combine variability of rainfall, complex topography and behavior
of rainfall on sub grid level. The skill score of climate forecasts needs to be
improved as well as performance metrics set for the improvement in
business operations and planning.
In another IRI benchmarking study with Kenya Power and Lighting
Company (KPLC) and KenGen, it was determined that drought-induced
fuel internal to the country. In addition, to help mitigate the crisis, the World
power rationing which translated to massive layoffs. Seventy percent of the
manufacturing firms not willing to increase investment in Kenya if power
reliability issues were not addressed. In this case, the energy crisis loss to
OCEAN FORECAST FOR ECONOMIC ADVANCEMENT
generation averages growth 10%/year. There is large scale inter-annual
rationing decreased production to 40% and they had to secure an, emergency
power credit of $72M to purchase fuel since there were no sources of fossil
Bank granted $47M to import and operate generators. The economic losses
$20M /6 months with expenditure of $141M for fuel. The effect was 12 hr.
from rationing and power failure were estimated at $2M/day and KPLC lost