1 Oceans from Space, a Once-a-Decade Review of Progress
11
which may bring mud and debris. I remember watching a small fish swim by the
meeting hall in 2000. An added problem of the high water is that boats cannot
pass under some bridges. Tourists now come to witness “acqua alta”, but the city
suffers.
The highest “acqua alta” in recent times was on 4 November 1966, reaching a
level of 194 cm, enough to flood the entire city and do extensive damage. Since
then people are more prepared, but levels have never come within 30 cm of this
record. Recent highs were 156 cm on 1 December 2008, 147 cm on 16 November
2002 and 144 cm on 6 November 2000. Most extreme highs occur in November and
December, but on 16 April 1936, water reached 136 cm. I see there will be a full
moon at 12:21 UT on Wednesday 28 April 2010, during our conference. We must
hope the barometer stays high and the winds light.
The project MOSE 7 is now underway, installing rising gates to block the gaps
in the chain of offshore islands which include the Venice Lido. This is a huge and
expensive project which has already faced delays and budget over-runs. It is now
proceeding slowly and is due to be completed in about 2014.
1.10 Conclusions
What can we conclude? First, let us be selfish and conclude that we should all live
long and scientifically productive lives, which will let us see how this dangerous
adventure of the human race turns out. I hope we will all be here again at Oceans
from Space, Venice 2020. For this, both Venice and ourselves need to survive. The
extra 10 years will give us an improved perspective, and maybe the Keeling curve
will have slowed. If not, the sea level rise may indeed have accelerated, and MOSE
may well have already been proven inadequate.
At the 2000 conference I said I hoped to see humanity’s first contact with intelligent life elsewhere in the universe. This may seem a strange dream, yet it is
reasonably rational. To many specialists the mystery is why another civilization has
not already contacted us. Maybe global warming tends to wipe out intelligent life?
Maybe we’ll see.
On a more down-to-earth note, we certainly conclude that the work covered by
this conference is important, and that its importance is growing. We hope that governments will appreciate the need for improved monitoring of the global marine
environment, and more importantly that they will act on the need to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide. I look for a significant reduction in the rise rate of the
Keeling curve below the constant acceleration shown in Fig. 1.1 and Equation (1.1).
I’m less sure how we hope to reduce the actual level to 350 ppm. 8
Finally, let me also ask once again for any ideas on “best ocean satellite-based
time series.” There must be others. I’m working on statistics of bright blooms
7 See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MOSE_project
8 As suggested by www.350.org
11
which may bring mud and debris. I remember watching a small fish swim by the
meeting hall in 2000. An added problem of the high water is that boats cannot
pass under some bridges. Tourists now come to witness “acqua alta”, but the city
suffers.
The highest “acqua alta” in recent times was on 4 November 1966, reaching a
level of 194 cm, enough to flood the entire city and do extensive damage. Since
then people are more prepared, but levels have never come within 30 cm of this
record. Recent highs were 156 cm on 1 December 2008, 147 cm on 16 November
2002 and 144 cm on 6 November 2000. Most extreme highs occur in November and
December, but on 16 April 1936, water reached 136 cm. I see there will be a full
moon at 12:21 UT on Wednesday 28 April 2010, during our conference. We must
hope the barometer stays high and the winds light.
The project MOSE 7 is now underway, installing rising gates to block the gaps
in the chain of offshore islands which include the Venice Lido. This is a huge and
expensive project which has already faced delays and budget over-runs. It is now
proceeding slowly and is due to be completed in about 2014.
1.10 Conclusions
What can we conclude? First, let us be selfish and conclude that we should all live
long and scientifically productive lives, which will let us see how this dangerous
adventure of the human race turns out. I hope we will all be here again at Oceans
from Space, Venice 2020. For this, both Venice and ourselves need to survive. The
extra 10 years will give us an improved perspective, and maybe the Keeling curve
will have slowed. If not, the sea level rise may indeed have accelerated, and MOSE
may well have already been proven inadequate.
At the 2000 conference I said I hoped to see humanity’s first contact with intelligent life elsewhere in the universe. This may seem a strange dream, yet it is
reasonably rational. To many specialists the mystery is why another civilization has
not already contacted us. Maybe global warming tends to wipe out intelligent life?
Maybe we’ll see.
On a more down-to-earth note, we certainly conclude that the work covered by
this conference is important, and that its importance is growing. We hope that governments will appreciate the need for improved monitoring of the global marine
environment, and more importantly that they will act on the need to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide. I look for a significant reduction in the rise rate of the
Keeling curve below the constant acceleration shown in Fig. 1.1 and Equation (1.1).
I’m less sure how we hope to reduce the actual level to 350 ppm. 8
Finally, let me also ask once again for any ideas on “best ocean satellite-based
time series.” There must be others. I’m working on statistics of bright blooms
7 See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MOSE_project
8 As suggested by www.350.org