362
20 Dating the First Migration to New Zealand
genealogical data, and estimates refined through correlations with climate proxy
data. In each case the high-level El Niño events involved establish them as rare
events, increasing their appropriateness for sharpening the genealogically based
estimates and increasing the likelihood of the refinements made by this means. The
rarity of the El Niño events, both in this context and in connection with the main
Rarotongan line, in each case effectively determines the most likely estimate within
the possible chronological bounds.
However, there appears to be little reliable genealogical information from within
New Zealand to help date Eastern Polynesian migrations to New Zealand during
the Medieval Climatic Optimum. We rely on Rarotongan genealogical data to date
the voyage of Hoaki and Taukata to New Zealand in AD 1200. The migrations
carrying Ng¯ ati Ruanui and Ng¯ a Rauru ancestors to New Zealand recorded in tradition can possibly be dated to the 1230 level 5 El Niño which we have correlated
with Kahukura’s migrations within Eastern Polynesia. A level 4 El Niño in 1244
may have triggered other migrations of these tribes. Ng¯ ati Ruanui, for example, is
associated with three migration canoes aside from several canoes of the Heke [13].
But without reliable generational estimates, which can reasonably be correlated with
high-resolution climate proxy data, there is no reasonable guide as to which extreme
climate events are likely to be involved. The dating margins proposed for the arrival
in the Chatham Islands of the Rangimata and Rangihoua canoes of 1295 and 1258,
based on the Moriori genealogies and of 1255 from the main Rarotongan line, which
also carried Ng¯ a Rauru peoples, suggest that earlier migrations to New Zealand may
have preceded those to the Chathams. This may support the El Niño-based estimates
we have suggested of 1230 and 1244 but the absence of reliable genealogical evidence in New Zealand prevents us making reliable correlations with climate events
that can be easily dated.
Nevertheless, where reliable genealogical estimates are possible, the correlation of severe El Niño events with significant voyaging activity that we have seen
in tropical Polynesia seems to hold both for dating earlier migrations to New
Zealand led by descendants of Maui, probably from the Spice Island region or
Western Polynesia, and for dating medieval Eastern Polynesian migrations to New
Zealand using genealogical estimates from the main Rarotongan line. El Niñodriven drought, starvation and conflict are usually implicated in triggering such
migrations.
Probably the most dramatic conclusion to emerge from combining genealogically
based and climate-based dating estimates is the consistency with which throughout Pacific prehistory long-distance oceanic migrations and significant voyaging
activity are correlated with rare extreme climate events. That the voyaging history of the Pacific is climate-modulated is an inevitable conclusion. Study of the
demographic impact of the Little Ice Age on prehistoric Maori populations in New
Zealand shows demographic history was also directly climate-modulated. Droughttriggered oceanic migrations occurred in response to demographic stress, which was
in turn triggered by climate extremes or by the famine and conflict which were the
consequences of these climate extremes. Such correlations encourage the mining of
climate proxies for the chronological insights they can provide. In many cases the
20 Dating the First Migration to New Zealand
genealogical data, and estimates refined through correlations with climate proxy
data. In each case the high-level El Niño events involved establish them as rare
events, increasing their appropriateness for sharpening the genealogically based
estimates and increasing the likelihood of the refinements made by this means. The
rarity of the El Niño events, both in this context and in connection with the main
Rarotongan line, in each case effectively determines the most likely estimate within
the possible chronological bounds.
However, there appears to be little reliable genealogical information from within
New Zealand to help date Eastern Polynesian migrations to New Zealand during
the Medieval Climatic Optimum. We rely on Rarotongan genealogical data to date
the voyage of Hoaki and Taukata to New Zealand in AD 1200. The migrations
carrying Ng¯ ati Ruanui and Ng¯ a Rauru ancestors to New Zealand recorded in tradition can possibly be dated to the 1230 level 5 El Niño which we have correlated
with Kahukura’s migrations within Eastern Polynesia. A level 4 El Niño in 1244
may have triggered other migrations of these tribes. Ng¯ ati Ruanui, for example, is
associated with three migration canoes aside from several canoes of the Heke [13].
But without reliable generational estimates, which can reasonably be correlated with
high-resolution climate proxy data, there is no reasonable guide as to which extreme
climate events are likely to be involved. The dating margins proposed for the arrival
in the Chatham Islands of the Rangimata and Rangihoua canoes of 1295 and 1258,
based on the Moriori genealogies and of 1255 from the main Rarotongan line, which
also carried Ng¯ a Rauru peoples, suggest that earlier migrations to New Zealand may
have preceded those to the Chathams. This may support the El Niño-based estimates
we have suggested of 1230 and 1244 but the absence of reliable genealogical evidence in New Zealand prevents us making reliable correlations with climate events
that can be easily dated.
Nevertheless, where reliable genealogical estimates are possible, the correlation of severe El Niño events with significant voyaging activity that we have seen
in tropical Polynesia seems to hold both for dating earlier migrations to New
Zealand led by descendants of Maui, probably from the Spice Island region or
Western Polynesia, and for dating medieval Eastern Polynesian migrations to New
Zealand using genealogical estimates from the main Rarotongan line. El Niñodriven drought, starvation and conflict are usually implicated in triggering such
migrations.
Probably the most dramatic conclusion to emerge from combining genealogically
based and climate-based dating estimates is the consistency with which throughout Pacific prehistory long-distance oceanic migrations and significant voyaging
activity are correlated with rare extreme climate events. That the voyaging history of the Pacific is climate-modulated is an inevitable conclusion. Study of the
demographic impact of the Little Ice Age on prehistoric Maori populations in New
Zealand shows demographic history was also directly climate-modulated. Droughttriggered oceanic migrations occurred in response to demographic stress, which was
in turn triggered by climate extremes or by the famine and conflict which were the
consequences of these climate extremes. Such correlations encourage the mining of
climate proxies for the chronological insights they can provide. In many cases the