14
1 Introduction
be found in elements defined by, or seen in terms of, many combining contexts.
These combining contexts include the history, geography, economics, horticulture,
oceanography, vulcanology, maritime technologies and the genetic and trading history of the Spice Islands. Viewing the prehistory of the Lapita and Polynesian
peoples through all these frames gives shape and depth to the history we unfold.
To offer a second example, awareness of the maritime strategies of the Spice
Islanders, especially in their early exploitation of fast warm currents and their avoidance of west–east sailing, led us to explore the possibility that the first settlement of
New Zealand occurred as part of the Lapita expansion. Combining evidence from
the study of Little Ice Age Maori hill-forts in the context of falling populations,
evidence for large populations in New Zealand in the Medieval Climatic Optimum,
with evidence from modern climate research, from mathematics and from a study
of ancient genealogies, eventually enabled us to rethink the palaeodemography and
chronology of Maori prehistory and to sketch a chronology for Moriori prehistory.
We found that cumulatively the non-archaeological evidence we explored, together
with demographic analysis based on skeletal studies and evidence from field archaeology, from ancient traditions, from the early observations of Europeans and from
a power law analysis of the rank size distribution of New Zealand pa, provided
striking support for a Lapita-age first settlement of New Zealand.
Overall, exploring new sources of evidence and studying new and known facts in
new contexts has led to a consilience of evidence that we trust will persuade readers
to look beyond limiting paradigms. We hope it will encourage them to explore new
ways of looking at the remarkable oceanographic, climatic, cultural and genetic
processes and events that led to the prehistoric peopling of the Pacific.
As a coda to this Introduction we might comment briefly on the special relevance
of our study to a world facing significant climate change Global climate change.
In this context the oceanic prehistory we unfold can be seen not as isolated and
idiosyncratic but as part of climate-driven global history.
Our analysis of Maori demography after AD 1400, for example, offers a clear
example of a climate-driven catastrophe from the past. Despite the size and relative
resource capacity of New Zealand and the vigour, intelligence and resilience of
Maori and their capacity for adaptation, we show large Maori populations struggling
to avoid extinction in the Little Ice Age. In the 400 years before European contact,
as climate extremes impacted on ecology, populations faced extinction in the poorer
areas, and we estimate, even in the richest areas, faced starvation and a devastating
population loss of the order of 93%. The fight for survival against European diseases
and guns we present as a grim extension of that struggle.
We set our version of Maori prehistory during the Little Ice Age in the context of
catastrophic population losses worldwide and, moreover, suggest that to be properly
understood, the whole history of the settlement of the Pacific has to be read in the
light of global climate history.
A report by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that 100 million people are likely to be facing starvation by the end of this
century as a warmer climate impacts on ecosystems, local climate systems, rainfall
patterns and sea levels. It predicts massive associated migrations worldwide. Our
study of the later migration history of the Pacific suggests something of the global
1 Introduction
be found in elements defined by, or seen in terms of, many combining contexts.
These combining contexts include the history, geography, economics, horticulture,
oceanography, vulcanology, maritime technologies and the genetic and trading history of the Spice Islands. Viewing the prehistory of the Lapita and Polynesian
peoples through all these frames gives shape and depth to the history we unfold.
To offer a second example, awareness of the maritime strategies of the Spice
Islanders, especially in their early exploitation of fast warm currents and their avoidance of west–east sailing, led us to explore the possibility that the first settlement of
New Zealand occurred as part of the Lapita expansion. Combining evidence from
the study of Little Ice Age Maori hill-forts in the context of falling populations,
evidence for large populations in New Zealand in the Medieval Climatic Optimum,
with evidence from modern climate research, from mathematics and from a study
of ancient genealogies, eventually enabled us to rethink the palaeodemography and
chronology of Maori prehistory and to sketch a chronology for Moriori prehistory.
We found that cumulatively the non-archaeological evidence we explored, together
with demographic analysis based on skeletal studies and evidence from field archaeology, from ancient traditions, from the early observations of Europeans and from
a power law analysis of the rank size distribution of New Zealand pa, provided
striking support for a Lapita-age first settlement of New Zealand.
Overall, exploring new sources of evidence and studying new and known facts in
new contexts has led to a consilience of evidence that we trust will persuade readers
to look beyond limiting paradigms. We hope it will encourage them to explore new
ways of looking at the remarkable oceanographic, climatic, cultural and genetic
processes and events that led to the prehistoric peopling of the Pacific.
As a coda to this Introduction we might comment briefly on the special relevance
of our study to a world facing significant climate change Global climate change.
In this context the oceanic prehistory we unfold can be seen not as isolated and
idiosyncratic but as part of climate-driven global history.
Our analysis of Maori demography after AD 1400, for example, offers a clear
example of a climate-driven catastrophe from the past. Despite the size and relative
resource capacity of New Zealand and the vigour, intelligence and resilience of
Maori and their capacity for adaptation, we show large Maori populations struggling
to avoid extinction in the Little Ice Age. In the 400 years before European contact,
as climate extremes impacted on ecology, populations faced extinction in the poorer
areas, and we estimate, even in the richest areas, faced starvation and a devastating
population loss of the order of 93%. The fight for survival against European diseases
and guns we present as a grim extension of that struggle.
We set our version of Maori prehistory during the Little Ice Age in the context of
catastrophic population losses worldwide and, moreover, suggest that to be properly
understood, the whole history of the settlement of the Pacific has to be read in the
light of global climate history.
A report by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that 100 million people are likely to be facing starvation by the end of this
century as a warmer climate impacts on ecosystems, local climate systems, rainfall
patterns and sea levels. It predicts massive associated migrations worldwide. Our
study of the later migration history of the Pacific suggests something of the global