338
19 Correlation of Significant Voyaging Activity with Rare Extreme Climate Events
19.8 Correlation of Significant Voyaging Activity
with Rare Extreme Climate Events
In this section we consider the voyaging activities of another three second-wave
navigators: Irapanga who, tradition records, led a migration fleet of six canoes from
the Spice Islands to Hawaii; Maui the Navigator whose voyages of exploration
took him to both New Zealand and Hawaii; and Tu-te-rangi-marama, whose voyages of exploration took him to New Zealand and the Chatham Islands. All three
navigators appear on the main Rarotongan line. All lived before the period covered by the El Niño low Nile flood proxy data. But the voyages of all three can
be dated from the Huguang Maar proxy data. (The relevant correlations are shown
in Fig. 20.1.)
Irapanga lived eight generations before the Antarctic voyager Ui-te-Rangiora
(AD 689) on the main Rarotongan line. This corresponds to an estimate of AD
485 ± 79. A climate spike in the Huguang Maar data occurs at 1,490 BP (AD
460). The nearest climate spike after this event occurs at 1,407 BP (AD 543). The
nearest earlier spike occurs at about 1,620 BP (AD 330), confirming a clear correlation between the genealogical maximum likelihood estimate and the closest climate
proxy estimate for an extreme climate event. Close correlation between the major
long-distance migration to Hawaii led by Irapanga and an extreme climate event fits
the pattern established for the later migrations of the two Antarctic explorers and for
the southern migrations to Hawaii in 1096.
Maui lived 15 generations before Irapanga. The Maui recorded in the Rarotongan
line (see Appendix 1) is almost certainly Maui the Navigator who met the chieftainess at Orokoroko: his dates match those for Maui the Navigator. His parents’
names, which tradition tells us were commemorated by Maui in place names in the
South Island of New Zealand, match those in the Rarotongan line. If we accept the
date of AD 460 for Irapanga, this places Maui at AD 76, with a standard error of
55 years. This is consonant with dating for the Ambrym eruption at AD 100, which
in Chapter 16 we suggested may have caused the tidal wave in which, according to
tradition, Maui drowned, close to his homeland. The Huguang Maar climate proxy
data has a spike at 1,850 BP (AD 100), corresponding to the accepted dating for the
eruption.
Tu-te-rangi-marama appears 18 generations before Maui on the same line. We
have a point estimate of 360 BC with a standard error of 60 years. The point estimate
coincides exactly with a climate spike in the Huguang Maar data. The closest earlier
spike in the data occurs during the global cold period when long-distance voyaging
was not feasible. There is no later climate event that is comparable in intensity with
that of 360 BC until 202 BC, which is more than two standard errors removed from
360 BC. Thus, given a date of AD 100 for Maui, the 360 BC climatic event is
the best candidate for ascribing a date for Tu-te-rangi-marama at a 95% confidence
level.
The climate spike at 360 BC shows a southward movement of the intertropical
convergence zone such as occurs during El Niño years. Whether severe drought led
19 Correlation of Significant Voyaging Activity with Rare Extreme Climate Events
19.8 Correlation of Significant Voyaging Activity
with Rare Extreme Climate Events
In this section we consider the voyaging activities of another three second-wave
navigators: Irapanga who, tradition records, led a migration fleet of six canoes from
the Spice Islands to Hawaii; Maui the Navigator whose voyages of exploration
took him to both New Zealand and Hawaii; and Tu-te-rangi-marama, whose voyages of exploration took him to New Zealand and the Chatham Islands. All three
navigators appear on the main Rarotongan line. All lived before the period covered by the El Niño low Nile flood proxy data. But the voyages of all three can
be dated from the Huguang Maar proxy data. (The relevant correlations are shown
in Fig. 20.1.)
Irapanga lived eight generations before the Antarctic voyager Ui-te-Rangiora
(AD 689) on the main Rarotongan line. This corresponds to an estimate of AD
485 ± 79. A climate spike in the Huguang Maar data occurs at 1,490 BP (AD
460). The nearest climate spike after this event occurs at 1,407 BP (AD 543). The
nearest earlier spike occurs at about 1,620 BP (AD 330), confirming a clear correlation between the genealogical maximum likelihood estimate and the closest climate
proxy estimate for an extreme climate event. Close correlation between the major
long-distance migration to Hawaii led by Irapanga and an extreme climate event fits
the pattern established for the later migrations of the two Antarctic explorers and for
the southern migrations to Hawaii in 1096.
Maui lived 15 generations before Irapanga. The Maui recorded in the Rarotongan
line (see Appendix 1) is almost certainly Maui the Navigator who met the chieftainess at Orokoroko: his dates match those for Maui the Navigator. His parents’
names, which tradition tells us were commemorated by Maui in place names in the
South Island of New Zealand, match those in the Rarotongan line. If we accept the
date of AD 460 for Irapanga, this places Maui at AD 76, with a standard error of
55 years. This is consonant with dating for the Ambrym eruption at AD 100, which
in Chapter 16 we suggested may have caused the tidal wave in which, according to
tradition, Maui drowned, close to his homeland. The Huguang Maar climate proxy
data has a spike at 1,850 BP (AD 100), corresponding to the accepted dating for the
eruption.
Tu-te-rangi-marama appears 18 generations before Maui on the same line. We
have a point estimate of 360 BC with a standard error of 60 years. The point estimate
coincides exactly with a climate spike in the Huguang Maar data. The closest earlier
spike in the data occurs during the global cold period when long-distance voyaging
was not feasible. There is no later climate event that is comparable in intensity with
that of 360 BC until 202 BC, which is more than two standard errors removed from
360 BC. Thus, given a date of AD 100 for Maui, the 360 BC climatic event is
the best candidate for ascribing a date for Tu-te-rangi-marama at a 95% confidence
level.
The climate spike at 360 BC shows a southward movement of the intertropical
convergence zone such as occurs during El Niño years. Whether severe drought led