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19 Correlation of Significant Voyaging Activity with Rare Extreme Climate Events
link persons or events with specific El Niño events, to establish a chronology for
some of the major maritime events in tropical Polynesia (whether we are considering migrations forced on tribes by El Niño-driven drought and starvation or conflict
and defeat or whether considering maritime opportunities seized by individuals in
times of strong El Niño activity).
Our analysis of Spice Island first- and second-wave voyaging in the Pacific has
been predominantly concerned with current-driven voyages from the Spice Islands
to New Zealand in the southern Pacific and to Japan, Hawaii and America in the
northern Pacific. In this chapter our focus moves to voyaging within and from tropical Polynesia which relied on wind power rather than on fast currents. We are
concerned with voyages of exploration, which in the first millennium AD ventured as far south as Antarctica, and with migration fleets, which in the medieval
warm period carried large numbers of migrants between archipelagoes in Eastern
Polynesia and from Eastern Polynesia to Hawaii and New Zealand.
19.4 Dating the First Eastern Polynesian Migrations to Hawaii
One of the best examples of the possibility of deriving a chronology through exploiting the connections between climate-driven events and the precise dating available
for solar eclipses and El Niño events can be seen in dating what Fornander describes
as the “migration era” in Hawaii. This, he explains, was a period lasting five or
six generations in which “the Hawaiian group was visited by expeditions from the
Samoan, Society and Marquesan groups, and the Hawaiian expeditions visited them
in return” [9]. Writing in 1878, Fornander refers to “the influx of the southern element, about 800 years ago” suggesting a rough dating for the beginning of this
migration period of about AD 1080. Kirch, referring to this era, comments:
Hawaiian oral traditions speak of a ‘voyaging period’ in which great navigators such as
Moikeha and Pa’ao made return voyages to ‘Kahiki’ and back. The appearance of new fishhook styles in Hawaiian sites around AD 1200 may indicate contact between Hawai’i and
the Society Islands, and there is linguistic evidence for Tahitic borrowings into Hawaiian
language. While long-distance voyaging certainly took place, it ceased about A.D. 1300,
after which the Hawaiian Islands became completely isolated from the rest of Polynesia
[10].
The timing for this migration and voyaging period is tied to dating for the
Medieval Climatic Optimum in the northern as opposed to the southern hemisphere.
In the northern Pacific the medieval warm period began earlier and ended in about
1300, 100 years before it ended in New Zealand. (The isolation of New Zealand in
the Little Ice Age correspondingly occurred 100 years later than in Hawaii.)
From Fornander’s account it would appear that the decision to migrate to
Hawaii was triggered simultaneously in a number of southern archipelagoes:
Samoa, the Society Islands and the Marquesas. Simultaneous decisions in different archipelagoes suggest high demographic stress induced by a severe El Niño
with a widespread effect. The 1096 El Niño was the strongest ENSO event in the
period from 968 to 1199, a period of more than 200 years. Its date is in keeping with
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