252
15 Dating the First Settlement of New Zealand
archaeologically, that is, in New Zealand, by direct recourse to pa data. The power
law analysis we undertake is thus necessarily based on the pa data for the sample of
931 pa recently prepared by Tony Walter and Nicola Molloy for the Archaeological
Society of New Zealand. We use this data to effect a power law analysis of Walton’s
rank size distribution curves. This analysis gives us direct access to population
growth rates from first settlement to AD 1445 via an estimate for the size of the
founder population. This makes it possible to determine the most likely date for the
first settlement of New Zealand.
Data supplied by Walton from the 931 pa database was fitted well by the double
Pareto distribution and gave in particular a pa equivalent area of 4,281.85 m 2 for X 0
in the founder community. An estimate for the percentage of defended living area to
total area, however, is needed before a founder population can be estimated. As we
saw in Chapter 14, Table 14.3 provides a means of estimating defended living area
from total pa area:
Living area = 0.676 × total area
with the 95% confidence interval (0.576, 0.775) for the multiplier.
Multiplying the estimate for the pa equivalent area of the founder community of
4,281.85 by 0.676, to give the dwelling area of the founding settlement, provides
the result of 2,894 m 2 .
Taking the defended living space for Maori pa as corresponding to Naroll’s
dwelling area, we can divide the dwelling area of the founder settlement by 10
m 2 to give an estimate for the founding population of 289. It must be stressed that
the Naroll estimate of 10 m 2 is very rough. However, an estimate of 289 for the
founding population is consistent with a founding population associated with a fleet
of six or seven canoes carrying 40–50 people each. Although Flannery quotes 500
as the minimum isolated mammalian population needed to ensure survival [6], 289
might still be thought of as a significant population. That the first migration to New
Zealand survived despite a probable near-extinction event in its early history (see
Chapter 20) might be taken as evidence of the plausibility of the power law estimate
for the founding population. The near-extinction event took place 17 generations
after first settlement by which time, as we shall see, the population would have been
of the order of 797 and so technically largely free from the danger of extinction.
15.2 Estimating the Date of First Settlement
The area derived from the Pareto distribution (4,281.85 m 2 ) is the area equivalent
of the number of people in the founder population. This area equivalent can also be
used for estimating the population growth between first settlement and 1445.
As will be obvious from Part I, dating for an early first settlement of New Zealand
is subject to climate constraints. First settlement has to have occurred either before
the global cold period began in about 1000 BC (a first-wave migration) or after 400
BC when long-distance voyaging again became possible (a second-wave migration).
In Chapter 14 we found after a double-counting correction a total pa area
of 23,094,000 m 2 . Dividing this by 4,231.85 (the area estimate for the founder
15 Dating the First Settlement of New Zealand
archaeologically, that is, in New Zealand, by direct recourse to pa data. The power
law analysis we undertake is thus necessarily based on the pa data for the sample of
931 pa recently prepared by Tony Walter and Nicola Molloy for the Archaeological
Society of New Zealand. We use this data to effect a power law analysis of Walton’s
rank size distribution curves. This analysis gives us direct access to population
growth rates from first settlement to AD 1445 via an estimate for the size of the
founder population. This makes it possible to determine the most likely date for the
first settlement of New Zealand.
Data supplied by Walton from the 931 pa database was fitted well by the double
Pareto distribution and gave in particular a pa equivalent area of 4,281.85 m 2 for X 0
in the founder community. An estimate for the percentage of defended living area to
total area, however, is needed before a founder population can be estimated. As we
saw in Chapter 14, Table 14.3 provides a means of estimating defended living area
from total pa area:
Living area = 0.676 × total area
with the 95% confidence interval (0.576, 0.775) for the multiplier.
Multiplying the estimate for the pa equivalent area of the founder community of
4,281.85 by 0.676, to give the dwelling area of the founding settlement, provides
the result of 2,894 m 2 .
Taking the defended living space for Maori pa as corresponding to Naroll’s
dwelling area, we can divide the dwelling area of the founder settlement by 10
m 2 to give an estimate for the founding population of 289. It must be stressed that
the Naroll estimate of 10 m 2 is very rough. However, an estimate of 289 for the
founding population is consistent with a founding population associated with a fleet
of six or seven canoes carrying 40–50 people each. Although Flannery quotes 500
as the minimum isolated mammalian population needed to ensure survival [6], 289
might still be thought of as a significant population. That the first migration to New
Zealand survived despite a probable near-extinction event in its early history (see
Chapter 20) might be taken as evidence of the plausibility of the power law estimate
for the founding population. The near-extinction event took place 17 generations
after first settlement by which time, as we shall see, the population would have been
of the order of 797 and so technically largely free from the danger of extinction.
15.2 Estimating the Date of First Settlement
The area derived from the Pareto distribution (4,281.85 m 2 ) is the area equivalent
of the number of people in the founder population. This area equivalent can also be
used for estimating the population growth between first settlement and 1445.
As will be obvious from Part I, dating for an early first settlement of New Zealand
is subject to climate constraints. First settlement has to have occurred either before
the global cold period began in about 1000 BC (a first-wave migration) or after 400
BC when long-distance voyaging again became possible (a second-wave migration).
In Chapter 14 we found after a double-counting correction a total pa area
of 23,094,000 m 2 . Dividing this by 4,231.85 (the area estimate for the founder