Chapter 15
Dating the First Settlement of New Zealand:
A Power Law Analysis
Abstract Chapter 15 uses a powerful new approach for dating the first settlement
of New Zealand – an approach based on power laws associated with the rank size
distribution of New Zealand pa (hill-forts). Because the pattern of pa settlement has
grown out of ancient settlement patterns, pa rank size distribution retains an imprint
of the prior history of settlement in New Zealand. Thus it is possible through mathematical analysis of pa rank size distribution to estimate a population growth rate
for New Zealand averaged over the full period of its settlement and so to calculate the most likely date for first settlement from the appropriateness of population
growth rates associated with specific possible settlement dates. The size of a founder
population can also be estimated directly from a rank size distribution. Retrieving
such information from New Zealand’s past has been made possible by the recent
compilation of a significant sample of the areas of 931 pa and recent publication of
Walton’s rank size distribution curves. The population growth rates estimated using
this power law approach show that the first settlement of New Zealand occurred
early in the Lapita migration period (3,600–3,000 years ago). The chapter concludes with a summary of the demographic evidence presented in Part II and with
discussion of its human implications.
Keywords New Zealand pa · Rank size distribution · Founder population · Early
growth rate · Fortification sequence
15.1 Pa Rank Size Distribution
Extreme population losses in Little Ice Age New Zealand are implicit in the
skeletal analysis of the last chapter. The scale of the losses can be readily seen
through comparison of estimates for the total population of the North Island in 1445
(2,113,000–2,473,000) and in 1801 (155,000–175,000). They can also be envisaged
by considering the correlation between pa population and pa capacity in 1445 (with
an area per person of 10 m 2 ) and their disparity in 1801 (with an area per person
of 92.35 m 2 –107.63 m 2 ). Large populations in 1445, we have argued, imply a long
demographic history for Maori in New Zealand. Establishing the time depth of this
249
C.E.M. Pearce, F.M. Pearce, Oceanic Migration,
DOI 10.1007/978-90-481-3826-5_15, C
Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010
Dating the First Settlement of New Zealand:
A Power Law Analysis
Abstract Chapter 15 uses a powerful new approach for dating the first settlement
of New Zealand – an approach based on power laws associated with the rank size
distribution of New Zealand pa (hill-forts). Because the pattern of pa settlement has
grown out of ancient settlement patterns, pa rank size distribution retains an imprint
of the prior history of settlement in New Zealand. Thus it is possible through mathematical analysis of pa rank size distribution to estimate a population growth rate
for New Zealand averaged over the full period of its settlement and so to calculate the most likely date for first settlement from the appropriateness of population
growth rates associated with specific possible settlement dates. The size of a founder
population can also be estimated directly from a rank size distribution. Retrieving
such information from New Zealand’s past has been made possible by the recent
compilation of a significant sample of the areas of 931 pa and recent publication of
Walton’s rank size distribution curves. The population growth rates estimated using
this power law approach show that the first settlement of New Zealand occurred
early in the Lapita migration period (3,600–3,000 years ago). The chapter concludes with a summary of the demographic evidence presented in Part II and with
discussion of its human implications.
Keywords New Zealand pa · Rank size distribution · Founder population · Early
growth rate · Fortification sequence
15.1 Pa Rank Size Distribution
Extreme population losses in Little Ice Age New Zealand are implicit in the
skeletal analysis of the last chapter. The scale of the losses can be readily seen
through comparison of estimates for the total population of the North Island in 1445
(2,113,000–2,473,000) and in 1801 (155,000–175,000). They can also be envisaged
by considering the correlation between pa population and pa capacity in 1445 (with
an area per person of 10 m 2 ) and their disparity in 1801 (with an area per person
of 92.35 m 2 –107.63 m 2 ). Large populations in 1445, we have argued, imply a long
demographic history for Maori in New Zealand. Establishing the time depth of this
249
C.E.M. Pearce, F.M. Pearce, Oceanic Migration,
DOI 10.1007/978-90-481-3826-5_15, C
Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010