Chapter 14
New Zealand Palaeodemography:
Archaeologically Based Demographic Evidence
Abstract Modern statistical analysis of the skeletal evidence studied by Brewis,
Molloy and Sutton in 1990 gives explicit quantifiable evidence for drastic population loss in the poorer areas in Little Ice Age New Zealand. Using new evidence
from field archaeology relating to Maori pa (hill-forts) it is possible to estimate the
total population capacity of pa in AD 1445 and to use this with Rutherford’s and
Urlich’s population estimates for 1801 to determine differential rates for population
decline in the pa areas and in poorer areas. Combining these approaches makes it
possible to offer a comprehensive overview of the demographic patterns shaping
the prehistory of New Zealand in the Little Ice Age. That the differential in population decline rates between pa and non-pa areas is so great highlights the efficacy
of growing and storing kumara to combat starvation. That is, it supports the role of
horticulture and pa-building as strategies for survival. The demographic evidence
presented in this chapter for drastically falling populations in the Little Ice Age
establishes definitively that a late first settlement date for New Zealand is out of the
question.
Keywords New Zealand palaeodemography · Little Ice Age · Pa areas · Non-pa
areas · Population decline
14.1 Introduction
The claim for a late first settlement of New Zealand implies a rapid and sustained
population growth not just during the Medieval Climatic Optimum but also, and
against world patterns, in the Little Ice Age. Making a case for the Lapita-age first
settlement of New Zealand that is predicted by our central paradigm requires an
engagement with fundamental demographic issues. In this chapter we use modern statistical methods to derive new parameters from the skeletal data studied by
Alexandra Brewis , Maureen Molloy and Douglas Sutton in 1990. Our new analysis provides clear and quantifiable evidence for drastic population losses during the
Little Ice Age. By implication it establishes high population levels at the beginning
of the Little Ice Age and a long demographic history for Maori in New Zealand.
229
C.E.M. Pearce, F.M. Pearce, Oceanic Migration,
DOI 10.1007/978-90-481-3826-5_14, C
Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010
New Zealand Palaeodemography:
Archaeologically Based Demographic Evidence
Abstract Modern statistical analysis of the skeletal evidence studied by Brewis,
Molloy and Sutton in 1990 gives explicit quantifiable evidence for drastic population loss in the poorer areas in Little Ice Age New Zealand. Using new evidence
from field archaeology relating to Maori pa (hill-forts) it is possible to estimate the
total population capacity of pa in AD 1445 and to use this with Rutherford’s and
Urlich’s population estimates for 1801 to determine differential rates for population
decline in the pa areas and in poorer areas. Combining these approaches makes it
possible to offer a comprehensive overview of the demographic patterns shaping
the prehistory of New Zealand in the Little Ice Age. That the differential in population decline rates between pa and non-pa areas is so great highlights the efficacy
of growing and storing kumara to combat starvation. That is, it supports the role of
horticulture and pa-building as strategies for survival. The demographic evidence
presented in this chapter for drastically falling populations in the Little Ice Age
establishes definitively that a late first settlement date for New Zealand is out of the
question.
Keywords New Zealand palaeodemography · Little Ice Age · Pa areas · Non-pa
areas · Population decline
14.1 Introduction
The claim for a late first settlement of New Zealand implies a rapid and sustained
population growth not just during the Medieval Climatic Optimum but also, and
against world patterns, in the Little Ice Age. Making a case for the Lapita-age first
settlement of New Zealand that is predicted by our central paradigm requires an
engagement with fundamental demographic issues. In this chapter we use modern statistical methods to derive new parameters from the skeletal data studied by
Alexandra Brewis , Maureen Molloy and Douglas Sutton in 1990. Our new analysis provides clear and quantifiable evidence for drastic population losses during the
Little Ice Age. By implication it establishes high population levels at the beginning
of the Little Ice Age and a long demographic history for Maori in New Zealand.
229
C.E.M. Pearce, F.M. Pearce, Oceanic Migration,
DOI 10.1007/978-90-481-3826-5_14, C
Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010