13.6 Deflated Estimates for Prehistoric Populations
227
Society), in a study of Maori wars, accepted as sound the missionary judgment that the
first third of the century saw population decreased by 80,000 due to “war, famine, and their
accompaniments”.
Even though they were made by contemporary observers, these 19th century
estimates are so at variance with modern thinking that it is not surprising that
they have been rejected by modern prehistorians and especially by those championing a 12th century first settlement. In Chapters 14 and 15 we explore rigorous
modern approaches to New Zealand palaeodemography which avoid many of the
confusions, contradictions and pitfalls that have bedevilled New Zealand palaeodemography. Such problems, we show, have all sprung from a failure to recognize
extreme climate-driven population losses in New Zealand in the Little Ice Age
which meant that population estimates made by those on The Endeavour were not
of maximum populations. In Chapter 14 we present a revised analysis of skeletal evidence which provides explicit, quantifiable evidence for drastically falling
populations in the Little Ice Age and thereby establishes both that the populations
that Cook estimated were remnant populations and that there must have been high
populations in New Zealand at the beginning of the Little Ice Age.
The climate-driven palaeodemographic history revealed through modern statistical analysis in Chapter 14 and even more clearly through power law analysis in
Chapter 15 throws emphasis onto New Zealand’s long demographic history. We are
able to provide estimates for the climate-driven population losses in the Little Ice
Age. From these it is clear that variations in estimates for the total New Zealand
population at the time of Cook and in 1801, variations proposed to 19th century
census estimates and variations in estimates for population losses due to epidemics
and wars in the 19th century at most can only alter by a few per cent estimates for the
extreme total population losses incurred by Maori from the beginning of the Little
Ice Age to 1896. The controversies that have been so prominent in New Zealand
palaeodemography appear less relevant when placed in a global climate context and
in a much longer demographic time frame.
In summary, we have sought in this chapter to represent the massive scale of
pa-building in horticultural areas, the density of pa in the landscape, the very considerable population capacity of pa large enough to be described as citadels and the
importance of pa, large and small, in defending horticultural land, stored harvests
and access to harbours and rivers and so to marine and riverine resources. That 98%
of pa were built to defend horticultural land, we have argued, suggests that in the
Little Ice Age horticulture was seen as a prime insurance against starvation in a time
of extreme resource depletion. In this chapter we have reported European and Maori
interpretations of pa capacity greatly in excess of Maori populations at the time of
European contact as evidence of extreme population decline during the Little Ice
Age. In Chapter 12, as evidence of widespread starvation, we drew attention to the
extinction of bird species and the diminishing numbers of seals in the Little Ice Age
and to the apparent abandonment of traditional hunting protocols designed to protect against over-hunting and species extinction. And we argued that starvation was
implicit both in the appearance in the Little Ice Age of cannibalism in New Zealand
227
Society), in a study of Maori wars, accepted as sound the missionary judgment that the
first third of the century saw population decreased by 80,000 due to “war, famine, and their
accompaniments”.
Even though they were made by contemporary observers, these 19th century
estimates are so at variance with modern thinking that it is not surprising that
they have been rejected by modern prehistorians and especially by those championing a 12th century first settlement. In Chapters 14 and 15 we explore rigorous
modern approaches to New Zealand palaeodemography which avoid many of the
confusions, contradictions and pitfalls that have bedevilled New Zealand palaeodemography. Such problems, we show, have all sprung from a failure to recognize
extreme climate-driven population losses in New Zealand in the Little Ice Age
which meant that population estimates made by those on The Endeavour were not
of maximum populations. In Chapter 14 we present a revised analysis of skeletal evidence which provides explicit, quantifiable evidence for drastically falling
populations in the Little Ice Age and thereby establishes both that the populations
that Cook estimated were remnant populations and that there must have been high
populations in New Zealand at the beginning of the Little Ice Age.
The climate-driven palaeodemographic history revealed through modern statistical analysis in Chapter 14 and even more clearly through power law analysis in
Chapter 15 throws emphasis onto New Zealand’s long demographic history. We are
able to provide estimates for the climate-driven population losses in the Little Ice
Age. From these it is clear that variations in estimates for the total New Zealand
population at the time of Cook and in 1801, variations proposed to 19th century
census estimates and variations in estimates for population losses due to epidemics
and wars in the 19th century at most can only alter by a few per cent estimates for the
extreme total population losses incurred by Maori from the beginning of the Little
Ice Age to 1896. The controversies that have been so prominent in New Zealand
palaeodemography appear less relevant when placed in a global climate context and
in a much longer demographic time frame.
In summary, we have sought in this chapter to represent the massive scale of
pa-building in horticultural areas, the density of pa in the landscape, the very considerable population capacity of pa large enough to be described as citadels and the
importance of pa, large and small, in defending horticultural land, stored harvests
and access to harbours and rivers and so to marine and riverine resources. That 98%
of pa were built to defend horticultural land, we have argued, suggests that in the
Little Ice Age horticulture was seen as a prime insurance against starvation in a time
of extreme resource depletion. In this chapter we have reported European and Maori
interpretations of pa capacity greatly in excess of Maori populations at the time of
European contact as evidence of extreme population decline during the Little Ice
Age. In Chapter 12, as evidence of widespread starvation, we drew attention to the
extinction of bird species and the diminishing numbers of seals in the Little Ice Age
and to the apparent abandonment of traditional hunting protocols designed to protect against over-hunting and species extinction. And we argued that starvation was
implicit both in the appearance in the Little Ice Age of cannibalism in New Zealand