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11 Challenging a Late First Settlement Date for New Zealand
themselves against adverse climatic events leading to food shortages and the spectre
of famine.
The agricultural revolution over 10,000–20,000 years ago in the Middle East
saw the development and cropping of cereals, root crops and tree crops, and the
appearance of herding and animal husbandry. The capacity to follow or maintain
herds and to harvest and store food crops led to higher population growth rates.
Before AD 1200 the insurance of stored horticultural harvests was not available to
New Zealand Maori and herd animals were notably absent. If an initial 0.5% per
annum rate of population increase were possible, it is unlikely that it could have
been sustained as populations reached higher levels in relation to food resources.
Without food storage there was a risk of population collapse if there were serious
reductions in the food supply.
If Maori had possessed the white potato from first settlement, their demographic
history would have been very different. For the white potato could produce reliable harvests in cold and wet conditions and could be stored. After European
settlement, the introduction of the white potato clearly helped slow a population
decline which had been accelerated by introduced disease and musket warfare.
If Maori had possessed the white potato in prehistoric times, higher population
rates might have been possible. But Maori would still have been without the
tropical tree fruits on which tropical Polynesians depended to help meet their
carbohydrate needs.
Before AD 1200, before medieval migrants brought systematic horticulture to
New Zealand, Maori without tropical vegetables and fruits had to depend on fern
root as a staple food. Fern root was a famine crop in tropical Polynesia, eaten in
times of extremity. Its major drawback as a staple food for Maori was that it seriously abraded tooth enamel. This increased the risk of tooth infection, which long
term posed the risk of tooth abscesses leading to blood poisoning and early death.
Through its contribution to early deaths, dependence on fern root as a carbohydrate
staple would have limited the population growth rate possible in prehistoric New
Zealand.
New Zealand’s great advantage over tropical Polynesia was its landmass. Island
Melanesia and tropical Polynesia were able to use terracing and irrigation. Tropical
Polynesians dug ponds and exploited swamps to grow taro. They could grow a
significant range of tropical cultivars. The horticultural systems they developed supported significant population densities. But the tropical islands were limited in size
and subject to periodic El Niño-induced drought and famine and to crop damage
from cyclones. Climate-caused crop loss posed a serious problem to their populations (as they have always done for horticultural societies). Once populations
were high in relation to land area and once most suitable land had been exploited
for horticulture, the tropical Polynesian islands were inevitably subject to conflict
over land and resources and to a climate-driven boom/bust demographic cycle [7].
New Zealand’s area is 15.6 times that of the Hawaiian Islands, the largest Eastern
Polynesian archipelago. This allowed for internal migration when food resources
grew short. The New Zealand population could be far larger before the remedy of
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