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4 Transoceanic Trade and Migration (1)
However, low SSTs in the long cold period that followed in about 1000 BC, and
in the southern hemisphere lasted till about 400 BC, would have made it impossible
for the Cinnamon Route to be maintained in this period and unlikely that a colony
could have been established in Madagascar then.
It is interesting that the date for first indirect evidence of a human presence in
Madagascar (2,366–2,315 cal yr BP) coincides with the end of this severe global
cold period in the southern hemisphere. But before we consider this as evidence that
Madagascar was first colonized then, we need to consider the question of how long
it takes for a founding population to have a recognizable impact on an environment.
David Burney and Tim Flannery [20] comment that
Founding human populations, especially those that find themselves on larger landmasses (or
perhaps grow slowly owing to disease or other factors) thus might be impossible to detect
with the use of customary archaeological techniques, such as surface survey and excavation
of artefacts. . .The low number of founding humans might take a few centuries to fill up
the new landscape with archaeological evidence that can rarely, if ever, be subsequently
detected before some critical level of human density is achieved.
Madagascar would certainly count as a “larger landmass”. If the Cinnamon Route
was established during the reign of Queen Hatshepsut and a trading station or small
colony set up in Madagascar, its population level at the end of the severe global cold
period may only by then have reached a level where its impact on the environment
was detectable. For a small population may not have thrived in isolation. As we shall
show in Chapter 20, tradition implies a near-extinction event in New Zealand when
a small population was isolated in the same cold period.
The indirect evidence of Burney et al. suggests there was a population in
Madagascar already impacting on its environment by 400–300 BC; it is possible
that an earlier population established before the cold period was responsible for the
archaeological evidence that has been found.
Burney et al. comment
It is worrisome that there are no dated occupation sites during the first half millennium of
significant indirect evidence for a human presence – including bones cut in an apparently
fresh state; introduced pollen, disturbance indicators, and particulate charcoal in cores; and
Sporomiella decline [21].
Perhaps the absence of settlement sites at this date suggests the population,
either of just arrived colonists or of a depleted remnant from an earlier colonization, or of both combined, must have been relatively small. There is a gap of
900–2,300 years on the island of Ngerekebesang in western Micronesia from first
palaeo-environmental evidence of settlement to the earliest archaeological evidence
yet discovered [22]. Such a gap reinforces Burney and Flannery’s point about the
times taken for small populations to leave an archaeological footprint. It seems not
unlikely that the evidence of ecological disturbance dated to a time immediately
after the end of the global cold period could indicate that both a new colony and
an earlier population were involved. H.H. Lamb [23] notes that it is a common
human experience for migrants to a new land, which they thought uninhabited, to
find settlers who had arrived there in a former warm period.
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