30
2
Retreat
R.H.C. Charlier and Chr. P~ De Meyer
In densely populated and productive areas, retreat may prove to be the least
economically viable response option because of nearly irretrievable losses
involved, or, in the case of small islands, the lack of land on which people can
resettle. Inundation of fertile coastal agricultural land and frequent flooding of
industrial sites and urban centres would threaten the value of past investments
and drastically limit future growth. In such cases, it is highly unlikely that the
economic benefits of retreat would exceed the costs.
Large scale resettlements could severely tax the planning, infrastructural and
distributive capabilities of most countries, especially for developing countries. In
particular, small island nations would face the most serious economic
implications of retreat. At its most extreme, it would involve resettlement of the
populations of entire nations.
The slow (albeit increasing) rate of sea-level rise permits appropriate planning
and incremental implementation of retreat options and this may reduce costs ~3.
However, in the case of arable lands, the inability to produce an adequate food
supply may cause further national hardship through both unemployment and loss
of exports.
3
Accommodation
Accommodation provides opportunities for inundated land to be used for new
ptwposes. Thus, some compensatory economic benefits could be derived from
accommodation or adaptation to inundation and flooding. For example,
agricultural land may, in some instances, be found suitable for aquaculture ; salt
resistant crops may be grown in areas previously dependent on freshwater.
Nonetheless, considerable costs may be involved in the planning and
restructuring of land-use. The necessary expenditure may place significant stress
on national budgets, especially in developing countries. In the case of an increase
in extreme events induced by climate change, such as tropical storms, altered
wave regimes and storm surge frequencies, significant expenditures would be
involved in disaster planning and preventing loss of life. Responding to such
events would require considerable national planning and might involve
compensation,
2
Retreat
R.H.C. Charlier and Chr. P~ De Meyer
In densely populated and productive areas, retreat may prove to be the least
economically viable response option because of nearly irretrievable losses
involved, or, in the case of small islands, the lack of land on which people can
resettle. Inundation of fertile coastal agricultural land and frequent flooding of
industrial sites and urban centres would threaten the value of past investments
and drastically limit future growth. In such cases, it is highly unlikely that the
economic benefits of retreat would exceed the costs.
Large scale resettlements could severely tax the planning, infrastructural and
distributive capabilities of most countries, especially for developing countries. In
particular, small island nations would face the most serious economic
implications of retreat. At its most extreme, it would involve resettlement of the
populations of entire nations.
The slow (albeit increasing) rate of sea-level rise permits appropriate planning
and incremental implementation of retreat options and this may reduce costs ~3.
However, in the case of arable lands, the inability to produce an adequate food
supply may cause further national hardship through both unemployment and loss
of exports.
3
Accommodation
Accommodation provides opportunities for inundated land to be used for new
ptwposes. Thus, some compensatory economic benefits could be derived from
accommodation or adaptation to inundation and flooding. For example,
agricultural land may, in some instances, be found suitable for aquaculture ; salt
resistant crops may be grown in areas previously dependent on freshwater.
Nonetheless, considerable costs may be involved in the planning and
restructuring of land-use. The necessary expenditure may place significant stress
on national budgets, especially in developing countries. In the case of an increase
in extreme events induced by climate change, such as tropical storms, altered
wave regimes and storm surge frequencies, significant expenditures would be
involved in disaster planning and preventing loss of life. Responding to such
events would require considerable national planning and might involve
compensation,