1 Towards Mitigation of Environmental Risks
19
areas of reduced risk. It is very likely that such areas are located at a considerable
distance from the coast and thus are suitable for shipping. They are the best candidates for fairways and locations of high-risk offshore structures. In semi-sheltered
domains such areas are generally located within a reasonable distance from the existing fairways and therefore the re-direction of activities to these areas incurs very
limited additional costs.
There exists a variety of meaningful quantifications of the offshore areas depending on the choice of parameters to be optimized. The ‘fair way’ of dividing the
costs equally between the opposite coasts (Soomere et al. 2010) is a local solution
that does not normally provide the minimum level of risk for the entire water body.
A global optimum could be determined in terms of the probability of vulnerable
areas being hit by potential adverse effects released at different offshore sites (Andrejev et al. 2011). Note that here the reduction in the cost of the consequences is
obtained by means of reducing the probability of hitting valuable areas.
Alternatively, the time it takes for the impact to reach a vulnerable area characterizes well the cost of the consequences: the longer time the pollution remains in the
open sea, the larger part of it may be removed before it hits a vulnerable spot. This
quantity (called particle age in what follows, Andrejev et al. 2011) may be decisive
in estimates of the capacity of oil combating services. Once a map of the probabilities of coastal hit (or the map of the time it takes for the potential pollution to reach
the coast) has been constructed, the optimum fairway roughly follows the minima
for the probabilities or the maxima for the particle age. In both cases the decrease in
the risk will be obtained through a decrease in the cost of the consequences on the
right-hand side of the risk equation.
1.13 A Preventive Technology of Environmental Management
The crucial point is the comparison of the existing fairways (or locations of other
potentially dangerous activities) with the maps of the level of potential risk associated with different offshore sites. The situation is perfect if the fairway coincides
with the areas of reduced risk (the minima of the above probabilities or the maxima
of the time). It is, however, much more likely that the major shipping lanes, at least
partially, cross regions that may provide larger danger to the coastal environment
than the adjacent domains. In this case, the risk to the environment can be reduced
by shifting the fairway to the areas hosting lower probabilities for the coastal hit or
larger particle age.
The key idea is therefore the adjustment of the sailing line (and potential accident site) beforehand, not waiting until an accident happens. If there is no accident,
we have lost nothing (except for minor costs related to the lengthening of the sailing
line). If, however, an accident occurs, the related environmental costs are minimized
for this particular journey. The aim is therefore a method for the systematic preventive reduction of the consequences. The developed method can thus be called a
preventive technology of environmental management.
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areas of reduced risk. It is very likely that such areas are located at a considerable
distance from the coast and thus are suitable for shipping. They are the best candidates for fairways and locations of high-risk offshore structures. In semi-sheltered
domains such areas are generally located within a reasonable distance from the existing fairways and therefore the re-direction of activities to these areas incurs very
limited additional costs.
There exists a variety of meaningful quantifications of the offshore areas depending on the choice of parameters to be optimized. The ‘fair way’ of dividing the
costs equally between the opposite coasts (Soomere et al. 2010) is a local solution
that does not normally provide the minimum level of risk for the entire water body.
A global optimum could be determined in terms of the probability of vulnerable
areas being hit by potential adverse effects released at different offshore sites (Andrejev et al. 2011). Note that here the reduction in the cost of the consequences is
obtained by means of reducing the probability of hitting valuable areas.
Alternatively, the time it takes for the impact to reach a vulnerable area characterizes well the cost of the consequences: the longer time the pollution remains in the
open sea, the larger part of it may be removed before it hits a vulnerable spot. This
quantity (called particle age in what follows, Andrejev et al. 2011) may be decisive
in estimates of the capacity of oil combating services. Once a map of the probabilities of coastal hit (or the map of the time it takes for the potential pollution to reach
the coast) has been constructed, the optimum fairway roughly follows the minima
for the probabilities or the maxima for the particle age. In both cases the decrease in
the risk will be obtained through a decrease in the cost of the consequences on the
right-hand side of the risk equation.
1.13 A Preventive Technology of Environmental Management
The crucial point is the comparison of the existing fairways (or locations of other
potentially dangerous activities) with the maps of the level of potential risk associated with different offshore sites. The situation is perfect if the fairway coincides
with the areas of reduced risk (the minima of the above probabilities or the maxima
of the time). It is, however, much more likely that the major shipping lanes, at least
partially, cross regions that may provide larger danger to the coastal environment
than the adjacent domains. In this case, the risk to the environment can be reduced
by shifting the fairway to the areas hosting lower probabilities for the coastal hit or
larger particle age.
The key idea is therefore the adjustment of the sailing line (and potential accident site) beforehand, not waiting until an accident happens. If there is no accident,
we have lost nothing (except for minor costs related to the lengthening of the sailing
line). If, however, an accident occurs, the related environmental costs are minimized
for this particular journey. The aim is therefore a method for the systematic preventive reduction of the consequences. The developed method can thus be called a
preventive technology of environmental management.