322
T. Soomere
as a qualitatively new way of protecting vulnerable areas (Soomere and Quak 2007;
Soomere et al. 2010).
There exist an enormous variety of ecological values and indicators of environmental well-being (Rice 2003). Using oil pollution as an example of a dangerous
event, it is natural to treat the pollution of the nearshore (called a coastal hit below),
wherever it happens, as a highly undesired and costly consequence. This setting
underlines the importance of coastal domains in the marine ecosystem according
to the common opinion that shallow-water and nearshore areas frequently have the
largest ecological and environmental value (Gray 1997; Kokkonen et al. 2010). Like
any other assignment of values, it obviously generates an associated distribution of
costs of otherwise similar accidents occurring at different sites.
10.1.3 The Inverse Problem
The practical use of this idea generally requires solving an inverse problem of the
identification of the most favourable location for the oil release. Its straightforward
solution presumes inverse tracking of pollution propagation, similar to the problem
of establishing the origin of illegal oil spills. The methods for effectively solving inverse problems are considerably less developed than those used for direct problems.
Although many trajectory-tracking (such as TRACMASS described in Chap. 7) and
oil drift models (e.g., Ambjörn 2007) are formally invertible, such problems are frequently mathematically ill-posed. A straightforward solution to these is not possible
and no universal method exists for their analysis.
The determination of the offshore domains that systematically offer the least danger to the environment in terms of the transport of various adverse impacts to vulnerable regions owing to different hydrometeorological factors is an extension of
the problem of the analysis of current-induced Lagrangian transport addressed in
the previous chapter. It is natural to use the same technique—statistical analysis of
a large pool of examples of current-driven pollution propagation—for solving it.
The variety of different environmental values naturally generates a similar variety of meaningful ways to characterize the ‘damage potential’ of the offshore areas.
They may be quantified, for example, according to the probability of pollution released in these areas to reach vulnerable regions, or in terms of time it takes for this
impact to reach the coast after an accident has happened. For any measure in use,
the goal is to identify the areas that offer the least ‘cost’ of accidents. As discussed
in Chap. 1, doing so is one of the two possible ways to reduce environmental risks
associated with this particular type of damage. For example, in terms of probabilities those domains are preferable, from which the propagation of adverse impacts to
high-value areas is most unlikely. The resulting quantification makes it possible to
find optimum locations of oil platforms, or where to tow a leaking vessel, among a
set of technically feasible solutions.
A highly interesting application is the specification of optimum fairways for
semi-enclosed seas. Such sailing lines offer a reduced level of remote impact of ship
T. Soomere
as a qualitatively new way of protecting vulnerable areas (Soomere and Quak 2007;
Soomere et al. 2010).
There exist an enormous variety of ecological values and indicators of environmental well-being (Rice 2003). Using oil pollution as an example of a dangerous
event, it is natural to treat the pollution of the nearshore (called a coastal hit below),
wherever it happens, as a highly undesired and costly consequence. This setting
underlines the importance of coastal domains in the marine ecosystem according
to the common opinion that shallow-water and nearshore areas frequently have the
largest ecological and environmental value (Gray 1997; Kokkonen et al. 2010). Like
any other assignment of values, it obviously generates an associated distribution of
costs of otherwise similar accidents occurring at different sites.
10.1.3 The Inverse Problem
The practical use of this idea generally requires solving an inverse problem of the
identification of the most favourable location for the oil release. Its straightforward
solution presumes inverse tracking of pollution propagation, similar to the problem
of establishing the origin of illegal oil spills. The methods for effectively solving inverse problems are considerably less developed than those used for direct problems.
Although many trajectory-tracking (such as TRACMASS described in Chap. 7) and
oil drift models (e.g., Ambjörn 2007) are formally invertible, such problems are frequently mathematically ill-posed. A straightforward solution to these is not possible
and no universal method exists for their analysis.
The determination of the offshore domains that systematically offer the least danger to the environment in terms of the transport of various adverse impacts to vulnerable regions owing to different hydrometeorological factors is an extension of
the problem of the analysis of current-induced Lagrangian transport addressed in
the previous chapter. It is natural to use the same technique—statistical analysis of
a large pool of examples of current-driven pollution propagation—for solving it.
The variety of different environmental values naturally generates a similar variety of meaningful ways to characterize the ‘damage potential’ of the offshore areas.
They may be quantified, for example, according to the probability of pollution released in these areas to reach vulnerable regions, or in terms of time it takes for this
impact to reach the coast after an accident has happened. For any measure in use,
the goal is to identify the areas that offer the least ‘cost’ of accidents. As discussed
in Chap. 1, doing so is one of the two possible ways to reduce environmental risks
associated with this particular type of damage. For example, in terms of probabilities those domains are preferable, from which the propagation of adverse impacts to
high-value areas is most unlikely. The resulting quantification makes it possible to
find optimum locations of oil platforms, or where to tow a leaking vessel, among a
set of technically feasible solutions.
A highly interesting application is the specification of optimum fairways for
semi-enclosed seas. Such sailing lines offer a reduced level of remote impact of ship