8
T. Soomere
port of dangerous goods, to minimize the severity (impact) of the potential disaster
beforehand, by means of methodically optimizing the possible accident site (location of the offshore activities or, more generally, the sailing line). The problem is
relatively simple for stationary objects such as oil platforms. In the case of fairways
the challenge is to provide a non-stationary (ideally, real-time) smart choice of a
vessel’s trajectory that minimizes environmental risks.
An adverse impact from harmful human activity may be released at any depth.
While oil spills from ship traffic released to the surface layer occur relatively frequently, much larger quantities of oil may be released into near-bottom waters after
failures of offshore oil platforms (Burgherr 2007). The failure of a nuclear submarine may pollute any layer in the sea. Although there exist successful attempts
to follow the three-dimensional (3D) propagation of oil spills (Chang et al. 2011),
establishing a systematic link between the locations of release and the regions of
impact for substances in a 3D current field is far too complicated even for relatively
small sea domains. For this reason, the approach presented in this book is limited to
the analysis of substances released to and propagating within the surface layer.
Although this framework, strictly speaking, is only directly applicable for persistent substances that are dissolved in the near-surface water in strongly stratified
environments under calm conditions or below ice cover, and when the contaminants
(e.g., dissolved radioactive substances) largely remain in the uppermost layer and
are carried exclusively by surface currents (e.g., Periáñez 2004), it is still a suitable
approximation for the vast majority of releases of potentially dangerous substances
to the marine environment. Most importantly, it adequately reproduces a large fraction of the fate of the lighter components of oil that are usually thought to pose a
large danger to valuable areas.
In order to keep the analysis and presentation as transparent as possible, a greatly
simplified description of the (cost of the) consequences will be used. The ideas and
the implementation steps of the technology are described only in terms of one specific adverse by-product of marine surface transport and some offshore activities—
oil pollution and its potential hits on a vulnerable or high-cost coastal area. The relevant risk categories are widely known and the benefits of the proposed new technology can be compared with the existing concepts and results.
1.5 Ship Routing Systems
Regulations concerning ship traffic and various offshore activities have already decreased the probability of marine accidents considerably. This development has,
however, had virtually no effect on their severity. The basic risk for the transport of
oil products is a coastal crash and the related pollution (Iakovou et al. 1999). Most
accidents, both with small and large consequences, happen in coastal waters (Romer
et al. 1994). Such events are, however, usually only the final stage of a sequence of
incidents that can be traced back to a failure, damage or misbehaviour within a certain section of the offshore sailing line. The key idea is to select this line so that a
T. Soomere
port of dangerous goods, to minimize the severity (impact) of the potential disaster
beforehand, by means of methodically optimizing the possible accident site (location of the offshore activities or, more generally, the sailing line). The problem is
relatively simple for stationary objects such as oil platforms. In the case of fairways
the challenge is to provide a non-stationary (ideally, real-time) smart choice of a
vessel’s trajectory that minimizes environmental risks.
An adverse impact from harmful human activity may be released at any depth.
While oil spills from ship traffic released to the surface layer occur relatively frequently, much larger quantities of oil may be released into near-bottom waters after
failures of offshore oil platforms (Burgherr 2007). The failure of a nuclear submarine may pollute any layer in the sea. Although there exist successful attempts
to follow the three-dimensional (3D) propagation of oil spills (Chang et al. 2011),
establishing a systematic link between the locations of release and the regions of
impact for substances in a 3D current field is far too complicated even for relatively
small sea domains. For this reason, the approach presented in this book is limited to
the analysis of substances released to and propagating within the surface layer.
Although this framework, strictly speaking, is only directly applicable for persistent substances that are dissolved in the near-surface water in strongly stratified
environments under calm conditions or below ice cover, and when the contaminants
(e.g., dissolved radioactive substances) largely remain in the uppermost layer and
are carried exclusively by surface currents (e.g., Periáñez 2004), it is still a suitable
approximation for the vast majority of releases of potentially dangerous substances
to the marine environment. Most importantly, it adequately reproduces a large fraction of the fate of the lighter components of oil that are usually thought to pose a
large danger to valuable areas.
In order to keep the analysis and presentation as transparent as possible, a greatly
simplified description of the (cost of the) consequences will be used. The ideas and
the implementation steps of the technology are described only in terms of one specific adverse by-product of marine surface transport and some offshore activities—
oil pollution and its potential hits on a vulnerable or high-cost coastal area. The relevant risk categories are widely known and the benefits of the proposed new technology can be compared with the existing concepts and results.
1.5 Ship Routing Systems
Regulations concerning ship traffic and various offshore activities have already decreased the probability of marine accidents considerably. This development has,
however, had virtually no effect on their severity. The basic risk for the transport of
oil products is a coastal crash and the related pollution (Iakovou et al. 1999). Most
accidents, both with small and large consequences, happen in coastal waters (Romer
et al. 1994). Such events are, however, usually only the final stage of a sequence of
incidents that can be traced back to a failure, damage or misbehaviour within a certain section of the offshore sailing line. The key idea is to select this line so that a