CHAPTER 18 • Management of Tokyo Bay
18.5
Epilogue
353
The analysis involved in this study was done in the mid-1980s. Since then Tokyo Bay
has seen a major rise and fall of mega-projects. These include Minato Mirai 21 in
Yokohama, Makuhari Messe in Chiba, Kawasaki Civil Port, and Tokyo Teleport. Salient
characteristics of these proposals were: they were planned to be located on parts of
reclaimed areas close to the centres of big cities; most of them were aimed at development of new office, commercial, and residential spaces rather than for heavy industries; and the financial scale of the projects, in terms of the expected market value of
the newly-developed land, was much greater than the value of land reclaimed for industrial development in the '60S and '70S.
A typical example is the Tokyo Teleport Project, planned for Ariake and Aomi areas
of Tokyo Port during the late '80S under the auspices of the Tokyo Metropolitan government. The plan intended to turn reclaimed land existing in the port area into a new
business centre for Tokyo, in which an high standard of infrastructure with enhanced
telecommunication capacity was expected to attract new demand for office space. The
business district was planned to allow for 110 thousand business employees; the residential district was to allow for 60 thousand inhabitants. Surprisingly, the entire project,
including the construction of roads, railroads, and facilities for disposal of wastes, was
to be financed exclusively by the rent revenues from the tenants, i.e., private companies, and thus no public expenditures were envisioned.
However, as the Japanese "bubble economy" collapsed in the early '90S, such optimistic calculations, based on assumed large increases in rent revenue, began to face
jeopardy. A committee of the Tokyo Metropolitan government found, for example, that
the current market price has fallen to 1.16 million yen m- 2 , whereas Tokyo's subsidiary
development corporation had already spent 1.30 million yen m- 2 to construct
infrastructural facilities. If current conditions continue, the debt burden would eventually be borne by tax payers. A study estimated that the tax bill for Tokyo's residents
would be increased by a total of 100 thousand yen (approximately US $800) per person.
This miscalculation may be primarily due to the unexpected fall in the rent of office space. However, newly-created office space in the Tokyo Teleport, Minato Mirai 21
in Yokohama, and the Makurari Messe area in Chiba would add up to an huge supply
that could never be matched by any reasonably projected demand.
The boom and bust of mega-developments are not the only instances of mismanagement of Tokyo Bay. A 1997 spill of crude oil from a big tanker, "Diamond Grace",
which was considered to be one of the most advanced and safest tankers available under to day's technology, drew attention to essential safety issues of marine transport in
Tokyo Bay. An outrageous proposed toll, i.e., 5500 yen (approximately US $50) one way,
for use of the new bay bridge, "Tokyo Aqualine", connecting Kawasaki and Kisarazu,
revealed a poor analysis of the demand for cross-bay automobile and truck traffic. A
plan for land reclamation in the Sanban~se area in Funabashi emphasizes the basic
question of whether or not reclamation of the remaining natural shore of Tokyo Bay
would really contribute to the net benefit of the citizens in the metropolitan area. The
management of Tokyo Bay is therefore an issue of ever growing concern, including the
need for competent, objective analysis of management options.
18.5
Epilogue
353
The analysis involved in this study was done in the mid-1980s. Since then Tokyo Bay
has seen a major rise and fall of mega-projects. These include Minato Mirai 21 in
Yokohama, Makuhari Messe in Chiba, Kawasaki Civil Port, and Tokyo Teleport. Salient
characteristics of these proposals were: they were planned to be located on parts of
reclaimed areas close to the centres of big cities; most of them were aimed at development of new office, commercial, and residential spaces rather than for heavy industries; and the financial scale of the projects, in terms of the expected market value of
the newly-developed land, was much greater than the value of land reclaimed for industrial development in the '60S and '70S.
A typical example is the Tokyo Teleport Project, planned for Ariake and Aomi areas
of Tokyo Port during the late '80S under the auspices of the Tokyo Metropolitan government. The plan intended to turn reclaimed land existing in the port area into a new
business centre for Tokyo, in which an high standard of infrastructure with enhanced
telecommunication capacity was expected to attract new demand for office space. The
business district was planned to allow for 110 thousand business employees; the residential district was to allow for 60 thousand inhabitants. Surprisingly, the entire project,
including the construction of roads, railroads, and facilities for disposal of wastes, was
to be financed exclusively by the rent revenues from the tenants, i.e., private companies, and thus no public expenditures were envisioned.
However, as the Japanese "bubble economy" collapsed in the early '90S, such optimistic calculations, based on assumed large increases in rent revenue, began to face
jeopardy. A committee of the Tokyo Metropolitan government found, for example, that
the current market price has fallen to 1.16 million yen m- 2 , whereas Tokyo's subsidiary
development corporation had already spent 1.30 million yen m- 2 to construct
infrastructural facilities. If current conditions continue, the debt burden would eventually be borne by tax payers. A study estimated that the tax bill for Tokyo's residents
would be increased by a total of 100 thousand yen (approximately US $800) per person.
This miscalculation may be primarily due to the unexpected fall in the rent of office space. However, newly-created office space in the Tokyo Teleport, Minato Mirai 21
in Yokohama, and the Makurari Messe area in Chiba would add up to an huge supply
that could never be matched by any reasonably projected demand.
The boom and bust of mega-developments are not the only instances of mismanagement of Tokyo Bay. A 1997 spill of crude oil from a big tanker, "Diamond Grace",
which was considered to be one of the most advanced and safest tankers available under to day's technology, drew attention to essential safety issues of marine transport in
Tokyo Bay. An outrageous proposed toll, i.e., 5500 yen (approximately US $50) one way,
for use of the new bay bridge, "Tokyo Aqualine", connecting Kawasaki and Kisarazu,
revealed a poor analysis of the demand for cross-bay automobile and truck traffic. A
plan for land reclamation in the Sanban~se area in Funabashi emphasizes the basic
question of whether or not reclamation of the remaining natural shore of Tokyo Bay
would really contribute to the net benefit of the citizens in the metropolitan area. The
management of Tokyo Bay is therefore an issue of ever growing concern, including the
need for competent, objective analysis of management options.