Oceanography Data (AVISO, URL: http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com), and others
are underway. The data from oceanic floats and moorings are gathered and collected
permanently. However, the problem of data assimilation in the ocean and seas did
not only lose its actuality and scientific significance, but became even more needed
and practically actual. The new technology of oil and gas extraction on the sea shelf
leads to the extreme importance of 3D oceanic parameter prediction in these zones.
The large platform transportation on sea routes leads to the actuality of the wind and
wave forecasts in the open ocean and oceanic shore zones. The recreation areas
development and their protection from dangerous external forcing as well as the
protection from anthropogenic influence bring new problems to be solved by the
researchers in the pollution spreading, forecasting, and decrease of the environment
contamination. All these problems cannot be solved without data assimilation
methods and their application in the numerical state-of-the-art models.
The development of adequate mathematical models of dynamics and environment variability is a very important and actual problem, the solution of which will
be even more needed in the near future. Numerical modeling is necessary not only
as a mathematical object but its conjunction with the field data would help to correct
and improve the model.
In the Earth modeling history it is possible to indicate the models by Bryan [4],
two-layer model by Moiseev [11], which for first time could predict the phenomenon of the Nuclear Winter. The specific works have been also developed in
the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science in Novosibirsk, under the
leadership of Marchuk and Sarkisyan [10]. The last years of 20th century and the
beginning of 21st century are known for an increased interest to the coupled
ocean-atmosphere models and in general the Earth System Models, see, for
example, the works by Kirtman and Shukla [9], in which a very complex Earth
dynamics, including the ocean dynamics, atmosphere dynamics, vegetation and
forest moisture exchange, river flows, and other process are mathematically
described and solved numerically using the modern state-of-the-art clusters,
supercomputers, and networks.
In general, in the beginning of the 1970s, the principal important step was made
in the mathematical modeling of the ocean, atmosphere, and their interaction, as
well as on the synoptic, seasonal, and long-term variability of the natural parameters. However, the modern state-of-the art models do not guarantee the best
forecasting and understanding of the complex natural processes and phenomena.
The problems remain, which are not yet able to be described or predicted adequately. For example, the quasi-biannual oscillation in the North Atlantic, the
dipole in the Equatorial Atlantic, Antarctic circumpolar waves, and several other
events are not modeled and correctly predicted numerically. The cause of the
observed Global Warming is not also quite clear. The oscillation and migration of
energetic-active domains, where the ocean-atmosphere interaction processes are
several times more intense than in the other regions of the World Ocean do not have
any adequate explanation.
These and other problems in modeling of the climate variability processes as
well as the processes of smaller scales, for example, weather prediction, have
448
K. P. Belyaev et al.
are underway. The data from oceanic floats and moorings are gathered and collected
permanently. However, the problem of data assimilation in the ocean and seas did
not only lose its actuality and scientific significance, but became even more needed
and practically actual. The new technology of oil and gas extraction on the sea shelf
leads to the extreme importance of 3D oceanic parameter prediction in these zones.
The large platform transportation on sea routes leads to the actuality of the wind and
wave forecasts in the open ocean and oceanic shore zones. The recreation areas
development and their protection from dangerous external forcing as well as the
protection from anthropogenic influence bring new problems to be solved by the
researchers in the pollution spreading, forecasting, and decrease of the environment
contamination. All these problems cannot be solved without data assimilation
methods and their application in the numerical state-of-the-art models.
The development of adequate mathematical models of dynamics and environment variability is a very important and actual problem, the solution of which will
be even more needed in the near future. Numerical modeling is necessary not only
as a mathematical object but its conjunction with the field data would help to correct
and improve the model.
In the Earth modeling history it is possible to indicate the models by Bryan [4],
two-layer model by Moiseev [11], which for first time could predict the phenomenon of the Nuclear Winter. The specific works have been also developed in
the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science in Novosibirsk, under the
leadership of Marchuk and Sarkisyan [10]. The last years of 20th century and the
beginning of 21st century are known for an increased interest to the coupled
ocean-atmosphere models and in general the Earth System Models, see, for
example, the works by Kirtman and Shukla [9], in which a very complex Earth
dynamics, including the ocean dynamics, atmosphere dynamics, vegetation and
forest moisture exchange, river flows, and other process are mathematically
described and solved numerically using the modern state-of-the-art clusters,
supercomputers, and networks.
In general, in the beginning of the 1970s, the principal important step was made
in the mathematical modeling of the ocean, atmosphere, and their interaction, as
well as on the synoptic, seasonal, and long-term variability of the natural parameters. However, the modern state-of-the art models do not guarantee the best
forecasting and understanding of the complex natural processes and phenomena.
The problems remain, which are not yet able to be described or predicted adequately. For example, the quasi-biannual oscillation in the North Atlantic, the
dipole in the Equatorial Atlantic, Antarctic circumpolar waves, and several other
events are not modeled and correctly predicted numerically. The cause of the
observed Global Warming is not also quite clear. The oscillation and migration of
energetic-active domains, where the ocean-atmosphere interaction processes are
several times more intense than in the other regions of the World Ocean do not have
any adequate explanation.
These and other problems in modeling of the climate variability processes as
well as the processes of smaller scales, for example, weather prediction, have
448
K. P. Belyaev et al.