17 Toward Marine Environmental
Predictions in the Mediterranean Sea
Coastal Areas: A Monitoring Approach
NADIA PINARDI 1 , FRANCIS AUCLAIR 2 , CLAUDIA CESARINI 3 , ENCHO DEMIROy 4 ,
SERENA FONDA UMANI 5 , MICHELE GIANI 6 , GIUSEPPE MONTANARI 3 , PAOLO
ODD0 1 , MARINA TONANI 4 AND MARCO ZAYATARELLI 1
1 Corso di Scienze Ambienta/i, University of Bologna, Ravenna, Italy
2Istituto di Geologia Marina, CNR, Bologna, Italy
3 ARPA, Bologna, Italy
4Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica, Rome, Italy
5Istituto di Biologia Marina, Trieste, Italy
6ICRAM, Venice, Italy
17.1 Introduction
Marine environmental predictions involve the observation and modeling ofphysical, biogeochemical processes and parameters, fused by advanced data assimilation schemes that optimally merge the observational and numerical modeling
information in order to produce forecasts. The result of such system should be
interfaced with socio-economic models of sustainable development and management of marine resources. Fusing the deterministic dynamical information about
the marine ecosystem with the socio-economic and political knowledge of the
marine environment has not been tried yet but it is one of the outstanding challenges in integrated coastal management studies. This paper tries to show a scientific strategy to predict the physical and biochemical components toward marine
environmental predictions, being aware that some considerations could be changed
in view ofthe integration with socio-economic models and issues. Here we use prediction in total analogy with forecasting and thus as synonymous of deterministic
prognosis of dynamical variables from a pre-defined initial state of the system.
The far reaching goal of marine environmental predictions is to advance the
understanding of marine ecosystem dynamical processes, manage resources, handle emergencies in the coastal areas and mitigate their impact on the marine ecosystem. Users of such environmental prediction system should be the coastal guard
services involved in the management and protection of the coastal zone waters, the
environmental protection agencies responsible for the control of marine water
quality and health status, fishery agencies and tourist industries. Last but not least,
Predictions in the Mediterranean Sea
Coastal Areas: A Monitoring Approach
NADIA PINARDI 1 , FRANCIS AUCLAIR 2 , CLAUDIA CESARINI 3 , ENCHO DEMIROy 4 ,
SERENA FONDA UMANI 5 , MICHELE GIANI 6 , GIUSEPPE MONTANARI 3 , PAOLO
ODD0 1 , MARINA TONANI 4 AND MARCO ZAYATARELLI 1
1 Corso di Scienze Ambienta/i, University of Bologna, Ravenna, Italy
2Istituto di Geologia Marina, CNR, Bologna, Italy
3 ARPA, Bologna, Italy
4Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica, Rome, Italy
5Istituto di Biologia Marina, Trieste, Italy
6ICRAM, Venice, Italy
17.1 Introduction
Marine environmental predictions involve the observation and modeling ofphysical, biogeochemical processes and parameters, fused by advanced data assimilation schemes that optimally merge the observational and numerical modeling
information in order to produce forecasts. The result of such system should be
interfaced with socio-economic models of sustainable development and management of marine resources. Fusing the deterministic dynamical information about
the marine ecosystem with the socio-economic and political knowledge of the
marine environment has not been tried yet but it is one of the outstanding challenges in integrated coastal management studies. This paper tries to show a scientific strategy to predict the physical and biochemical components toward marine
environmental predictions, being aware that some considerations could be changed
in view ofthe integration with socio-economic models and issues. Here we use prediction in total analogy with forecasting and thus as synonymous of deterministic
prognosis of dynamical variables from a pre-defined initial state of the system.
The far reaching goal of marine environmental predictions is to advance the
understanding of marine ecosystem dynamical processes, manage resources, handle emergencies in the coastal areas and mitigate their impact on the marine ecosystem. Users of such environmental prediction system should be the coastal guard
services involved in the management and protection of the coastal zone waters, the
environmental protection agencies responsible for the control of marine water
quality and health status, fishery agencies and tourist industries. Last but not least,