10 Nicholas C. Flemming
marine-based industries and services (Woods et al., 1996, p.21). The value added
directly by these activities is ofthe order of $ 140-230bn/yr. The industries and services are subject to uncertainty, loss of efficiency, and direct costs and damage
caused by the unpredictable forces of the marine environment such as storms, sea
level surges, waves, erosion, transport and resuspension of pollutants, shifts in fish
stock migration, and toxic algal blooms. The temperature and salinity of the north
Atlantic determines the weather and climate of Europe, Russia, and the Mediterranean. Europe has agreat need to understand, monitor and predict the state of its
coastal seas, the Mediterranean, and the adjacent oceans, Atlantic and Arctic. The
monitoring and forecasting ofthe North Atlantic Oscillation, the fluctuations ofthe
Gulf Stream, convection and deep water formation, and Arctic sea ice formation,
are particularly important at the oceanic scale (Broecker, 1991; Parrilla et al., 1994;
Schott et al., 1994; DYNAMO, 1997; Sutton and Allen, 1997; Le Provost and
Flemming, 1998; EuroCLIVAR, 1998; Wood et al., 1999; Shindell et al., 1999).
Improvement of the short- to medium-term prediction services for maritime conditions would improve the value of maritime industries and services by a few percent. Ifwe accept 1 % as a most conservative estimate, the value added to the GNP
of the EU by a prediction system is of the order of $1.4-2.3bn/yr (Woods et al.,
1996). This is a minimum which should be exceeded by a factor of2-3. In addition there are the longer term benefits of climate prediction, and its impact on agricu1ture, energy generation, water supply management, land use and other social
activities, which would be of the same order. More recent economic studies under
way now are suggesting the methods for quantifying in comparable ways the benefits from short term commercial activities, through specific short and medium term
public good benefits, to long tenn public good, environmental, and c1imate scale
risks and benefits.
Europe possesses the wealth, institutions, and expertise to benefit strongly from
operational oceanography on a European, Mediterranean, and North Atlantic-Arctic scale. The same institutions permit Europe to contribute to and participate in
the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), (lOC, 1998, p.114). European agencies recognise their obligation to contribute resources and skills pro rata to the global observing system, and it is also important to Europe that the global
infrastructure is designed so as to guarantee the required data products and benefits
needed by Europe. Most of the countries with EuroGOOS Members attended the
4 th meeting of the Intergovernmental GOOS Committee (I-GOOS-IV) in June
1999 (lOC, 1999), and the GOOS Commitments meeting in July 1999.
European national marine research institutes, operational establishments (fisheries agencies, meteorological offices, environmental protection agencies), and transnational agencies and bodies (ESA, ICES, EUMETSAT, ESF, CEC, ECMWF,
Eureka EUROMAR, and the pollution and dumping Conventions) in combination
possess most of the scientific research basis, expertise, engineering ability, and data
processing ability needed to install and manage operational oceanography on a
European scale, and to benefit substantially from global operational oceanography.
However, prior to 1994 there was no declared objective, and no mechanism, to co-
marine-based industries and services (Woods et al., 1996, p.21). The value added
directly by these activities is ofthe order of $ 140-230bn/yr. The industries and services are subject to uncertainty, loss of efficiency, and direct costs and damage
caused by the unpredictable forces of the marine environment such as storms, sea
level surges, waves, erosion, transport and resuspension of pollutants, shifts in fish
stock migration, and toxic algal blooms. The temperature and salinity of the north
Atlantic determines the weather and climate of Europe, Russia, and the Mediterranean. Europe has agreat need to understand, monitor and predict the state of its
coastal seas, the Mediterranean, and the adjacent oceans, Atlantic and Arctic. The
monitoring and forecasting ofthe North Atlantic Oscillation, the fluctuations ofthe
Gulf Stream, convection and deep water formation, and Arctic sea ice formation,
are particularly important at the oceanic scale (Broecker, 1991; Parrilla et al., 1994;
Schott et al., 1994; DYNAMO, 1997; Sutton and Allen, 1997; Le Provost and
Flemming, 1998; EuroCLIVAR, 1998; Wood et al., 1999; Shindell et al., 1999).
Improvement of the short- to medium-term prediction services for maritime conditions would improve the value of maritime industries and services by a few percent. Ifwe accept 1 % as a most conservative estimate, the value added to the GNP
of the EU by a prediction system is of the order of $1.4-2.3bn/yr (Woods et al.,
1996). This is a minimum which should be exceeded by a factor of2-3. In addition there are the longer term benefits of climate prediction, and its impact on agricu1ture, energy generation, water supply management, land use and other social
activities, which would be of the same order. More recent economic studies under
way now are suggesting the methods for quantifying in comparable ways the benefits from short term commercial activities, through specific short and medium term
public good benefits, to long tenn public good, environmental, and c1imate scale
risks and benefits.
Europe possesses the wealth, institutions, and expertise to benefit strongly from
operational oceanography on a European, Mediterranean, and North Atlantic-Arctic scale. The same institutions permit Europe to contribute to and participate in
the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), (lOC, 1998, p.114). European agencies recognise their obligation to contribute resources and skills pro rata to the global observing system, and it is also important to Europe that the global
infrastructure is designed so as to guarantee the required data products and benefits
needed by Europe. Most of the countries with EuroGOOS Members attended the
4 th meeting of the Intergovernmental GOOS Committee (I-GOOS-IV) in June
1999 (lOC, 1999), and the GOOS Commitments meeting in July 1999.
European national marine research institutes, operational establishments (fisheries agencies, meteorological offices, environmental protection agencies), and transnational agencies and bodies (ESA, ICES, EUMETSAT, ESF, CEC, ECMWF,
Eureka EUROMAR, and the pollution and dumping Conventions) in combination
possess most of the scientific research basis, expertise, engineering ability, and data
processing ability needed to install and manage operational oceanography on a
European scale, and to benefit substantially from global operational oceanography.
However, prior to 1994 there was no declared objective, and no mechanism, to co-