318 Martin Fischer
radiation
ATMOSPHERE
ocean SS
atmosphe
fluxes
OCEAN
Fig. 16.10 Schematic view of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. Each
component is constrained with boundary conditions computed by the other model. Thus,
solar radiation is the only external forcing that is needed.
babwe, for instances, shows a correlation of about 0.8 with the SST anomalies
averaged over NINO-3. In the south of the United States which is an important
region for the supply of wheat for the world population, farmers already use ENSO
predictions routinely to optimize their results. Aiso in Australia ENSO predictions
are routinely used in agriculture. In South East Asia reliable ENSO predictions are
needed for the water reservoir management. For instance, in Thailand each year
before the monsoon season the govemment has to make the decision, whether to
empty the water reservoirs or not. A failure may either lead to catastrophic flooding
or to a severe lack ofwater which both have dramatic consequences for the population. Off the Peruvian coast the marine ecosystem is direct1y affected by the oceanic variations in upwelling which has large impact on the fishery industry. And
also decision makers in Europe are very much interested in potential long range
forecasts over Europe. For the energy supplying companies it is, for instance, very
important to know whether the winter will be cold or not. A difference of one
degree centi grade less in temperature leads to an additional energy demand of
about 1000 MW only in France which corresponds approximately to one big
nuclear power plant.
For ali these regions, reliable ENSO forecasts would offer decision makers an
opportunity to take account of anticipated climate variations, in order to reduce
impacts ofENSO on the economy. The successful prediction ofENSO is therefore
not only of scientific but also of large public interest.
radiation
ATMOSPHERE
ocean SS
atmosphe
fluxes
OCEAN
Fig. 16.10 Schematic view of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. Each
component is constrained with boundary conditions computed by the other model. Thus,
solar radiation is the only external forcing that is needed.
babwe, for instances, shows a correlation of about 0.8 with the SST anomalies
averaged over NINO-3. In the south of the United States which is an important
region for the supply of wheat for the world population, farmers already use ENSO
predictions routinely to optimize their results. Aiso in Australia ENSO predictions
are routinely used in agriculture. In South East Asia reliable ENSO predictions are
needed for the water reservoir management. For instance, in Thailand each year
before the monsoon season the govemment has to make the decision, whether to
empty the water reservoirs or not. A failure may either lead to catastrophic flooding
or to a severe lack ofwater which both have dramatic consequences for the population. Off the Peruvian coast the marine ecosystem is direct1y affected by the oceanic variations in upwelling which has large impact on the fishery industry. And
also decision makers in Europe are very much interested in potential long range
forecasts over Europe. For the energy supplying companies it is, for instance, very
important to know whether the winter will be cold or not. A difference of one
degree centi grade less in temperature leads to an additional energy demand of
about 1000 MW only in France which corresponds approximately to one big
nuclear power plant.
For ali these regions, reliable ENSO forecasts would offer decision makers an
opportunity to take account of anticipated climate variations, in order to reduce
impacts ofENSO on the economy. The successful prediction ofENSO is therefore
not only of scientific but also of large public interest.