Interview with Klaus Wyrtki
229
your forecast becomes essentially statistical. You can run 25 models 100 times each
and you have 2500 predictions and you average that and you think you have made a
forecast. No, because only one will be realized by nature. Nature will not realize the
average. There is a limit to forecasting.
Another technique of forecast is basically the extrapolation; actually, it is more
than an extrapolation, for instance, when you predict climate, you are projecting into
the future. This is better than an extrapolation. You are projecting what developments
or what changes can go on and you may give a certain envelope to this projection.
The envelope will become wider and wider with time. These things are all recognized
by reasonable scientists. I don’t say anything new.
Do you expect new developments or breakthroughs by new instruments?
I have too little knowledge about instruments. The satellites are new instruments, if
you want to say so. We will see more.
The basic principle of Dr. Wyrtki is, if you look closer at something with a new
instrument you find something.
That’s what W¨ ust said and I demonstrated it.
Will there still be interest in science in fifty years? Will people listen to scientists?
There will always be curiosity, science is driven by curiosity. There are always people
who are curious about things and they want to know it better.
We haven’t finished the prediction. You ought to look at developments that
in the future may take place. One point that is totally unknown to me is warfare,
fortunately. We do not have the slightest idea what the role of oceanography will be.
It has had a considerable role in the last thirty years. More money has definitely gone
into antisubmarine warfare than into academic research. The other open problem is of
course the population explosion and what to do about it. These problems will entertain
us in the next fifty years.
You wrote about that. I remember you had an article when you discussed the prospects
of climate change.
I said that sea level rise will be a picnic compared with the population explosion.
32
VI
You have already spoken a bit about what you consider your most important achievements. You said freedom of data, the monitoring idea, and other things. Is there
anything else you would say which has been a major achievement of yourselves?
The other items are plainly scientific ones. There is of course El Ni˜ no; its explanation as
the ocean response to the atmosphere and later on the explanation of the El Ni˜ no cycle
32 Wyrtki, K., 1989: Sea level rise—the facts and the future. Pac. Sci., 44 (1), 1–16.
229
your forecast becomes essentially statistical. You can run 25 models 100 times each
and you have 2500 predictions and you average that and you think you have made a
forecast. No, because only one will be realized by nature. Nature will not realize the
average. There is a limit to forecasting.
Another technique of forecast is basically the extrapolation; actually, it is more
than an extrapolation, for instance, when you predict climate, you are projecting into
the future. This is better than an extrapolation. You are projecting what developments
or what changes can go on and you may give a certain envelope to this projection.
The envelope will become wider and wider with time. These things are all recognized
by reasonable scientists. I don’t say anything new.
Do you expect new developments or breakthroughs by new instruments?
I have too little knowledge about instruments. The satellites are new instruments, if
you want to say so. We will see more.
The basic principle of Dr. Wyrtki is, if you look closer at something with a new
instrument you find something.
That’s what W¨ ust said and I demonstrated it.
Will there still be interest in science in fifty years? Will people listen to scientists?
There will always be curiosity, science is driven by curiosity. There are always people
who are curious about things and they want to know it better.
We haven’t finished the prediction. You ought to look at developments that
in the future may take place. One point that is totally unknown to me is warfare,
fortunately. We do not have the slightest idea what the role of oceanography will be.
It has had a considerable role in the last thirty years. More money has definitely gone
into antisubmarine warfare than into academic research. The other open problem is of
course the population explosion and what to do about it. These problems will entertain
us in the next fifty years.
You wrote about that. I remember you had an article when you discussed the prospects
of climate change.
I said that sea level rise will be a picnic compared with the population explosion.
32
VI
You have already spoken a bit about what you consider your most important achievements. You said freedom of data, the monitoring idea, and other things. Is there
anything else you would say which has been a major achievement of yourselves?
The other items are plainly scientific ones. There is of course El Ni˜ no; its explanation as
the ocean response to the atmosphere and later on the explanation of the El Ni˜ no cycle
32 Wyrtki, K., 1989: Sea level rise—the facts and the future. Pac. Sci., 44 (1), 1–16.