Sextant to Satellite
155
fall of communism prompted the sponsors of scientific research to start demanding
useful results. The political change did not occur until the late 1980s but in oceanography a change was evident as early as 1982 when an entirely unexpected, severe El
Ni˜ no impressed on oceanographers their obligation to alert the public of imminent
disasters.
Today oceanographers face a world very different from that of the 1960s. The
competition for resources has become fierce, and the sponsors of research demand
results that are of practical value. Maintaining a balance between the two complementary and equally important goals of science—science for the sake of understanding
natural phenomena, and science for the sake of useful results—has become very difficult. Despite these differences, there are similarities between the situation today and
that of the 1960s.
Then, an interest in oceanic variability led to the melding of scientists with
different backgrounds; observationalists, theoreticians, oceanographers, and meteorologists all interacted closely, thus creating a new community. This integration led to
beneficial changes in the manner oceanographers conduct their affairs. Once again,
today, groups with different backgrounds need to merge in order to make progress on
challenging and important scientific questions. Foremost is the need to anticipate how
the current, rapid rise in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide will affect
the global climate. Changes in the oceanic circulation will be of central importance.
Oceanographers have developed theories that explain that circulation, and the factors
that can cause it to change, but a major problem is the lack of tests for the theories. The
time scales of interest are so long, decades and more, that the measurements being
made at present and in the near future will be of limited value. How do we respond
to our sponsors who want answers soon?
Stringent tests for the theories are available in the geological records of the
very different climates the Earth experienced in its distant past. Oceanographers
are therefore obliged to take an active interest in paleoclimates. The challenge is
daunting because physical oceanography has a vocabulary and methods—a culture—
very different from that of paleoclimatology. The situation today has similarities with
that of the 1960s; communities with different interests and methods need to cooperate.
Familiarity with what happened over the past few decades can be a valuable guide.
This article tells the story of those decades from the perspective of an unexceptional
participant blessed with exceptionally good fortune. (For a more objective and detailed
version of the same story
3 see Philander, 2004.)
UP TO 1957
Originally the oceans were studied mainly for the practical purpose of making journeys across the oceans shorter and safer. Studies of the ocean for its own sake—of
conditions far below the surface for example—started when the HMS Challenger
circumnavigated the globe between 1872 and 1876. Numerous similar expeditions,
155
fall of communism prompted the sponsors of scientific research to start demanding
useful results. The political change did not occur until the late 1980s but in oceanography a change was evident as early as 1982 when an entirely unexpected, severe El
Ni˜ no impressed on oceanographers their obligation to alert the public of imminent
disasters.
Today oceanographers face a world very different from that of the 1960s. The
competition for resources has become fierce, and the sponsors of research demand
results that are of practical value. Maintaining a balance between the two complementary and equally important goals of science—science for the sake of understanding
natural phenomena, and science for the sake of useful results—has become very difficult. Despite these differences, there are similarities between the situation today and
that of the 1960s.
Then, an interest in oceanic variability led to the melding of scientists with
different backgrounds; observationalists, theoreticians, oceanographers, and meteorologists all interacted closely, thus creating a new community. This integration led to
beneficial changes in the manner oceanographers conduct their affairs. Once again,
today, groups with different backgrounds need to merge in order to make progress on
challenging and important scientific questions. Foremost is the need to anticipate how
the current, rapid rise in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide will affect
the global climate. Changes in the oceanic circulation will be of central importance.
Oceanographers have developed theories that explain that circulation, and the factors
that can cause it to change, but a major problem is the lack of tests for the theories. The
time scales of interest are so long, decades and more, that the measurements being
made at present and in the near future will be of limited value. How do we respond
to our sponsors who want answers soon?
Stringent tests for the theories are available in the geological records of the
very different climates the Earth experienced in its distant past. Oceanographers
are therefore obliged to take an active interest in paleoclimates. The challenge is
daunting because physical oceanography has a vocabulary and methods—a culture—
very different from that of paleoclimatology. The situation today has similarities with
that of the 1960s; communities with different interests and methods need to cooperate.
Familiarity with what happened over the past few decades can be a valuable guide.
This article tells the story of those decades from the perspective of an unexceptional
participant blessed with exceptionally good fortune. (For a more objective and detailed
version of the same story
3 see Philander, 2004.)
UP TO 1957
Originally the oceans were studied mainly for the practical purpose of making journeys across the oceans shorter and safer. Studies of the ocean for its own sake—of
conditions far below the surface for example—started when the HMS Challenger
circumnavigated the globe between 1872 and 1876. Numerous similar expeditions,