Chapter 4
The Instrumental Data
Record: Its Accuracy and
U se in Attempts to
Identify the "C0 2 Signal"
by Phil Jones
4.1 Introduction
Although meteorological recording began earlier, the period since the middle
of the nineteenth century is that traditionally associated with instrumental
records. This review examines in detail the reliability of temperature, precipitation and sea-Ievel pressure data, concentrating on the construction of
hemispheric and global average temperature series. The key piece of observational evidence in the "global warming debate" is the "global" temperature
series (Jones and Wigley, 1990). How much has the temperature risen? In
the last section, pattern correlation statistics are used to search for the greenhouse warming signals predicted by five different General Circulation Models
Acknowledgements: Mike Hulme provided the precipitation data used in Figures 4.4
and 4.5 and Ben Santer provided the diagrams 4.8 to 4.11. The assistance of W.L. Gates,
M.E. Schlesinger, J.F.B. MitchelI, J.E. Hansen and S. Manabe in providing model results
is gratefully acknowledged. Much of the work and the data sets and time series discussed
in the chapter have been developed with the support of the United States Department
of Energy, Atmospheric and Climate Research Division and the U.K. Department of the
Environment.
The Instrumental Data
Record: Its Accuracy and
U se in Attempts to
Identify the "C0 2 Signal"
by Phil Jones
4.1 Introduction
Although meteorological recording began earlier, the period since the middle
of the nineteenth century is that traditionally associated with instrumental
records. This review examines in detail the reliability of temperature, precipitation and sea-Ievel pressure data, concentrating on the construction of
hemispheric and global average temperature series. The key piece of observational evidence in the "global warming debate" is the "global" temperature
series (Jones and Wigley, 1990). How much has the temperature risen? In
the last section, pattern correlation statistics are used to search for the greenhouse warming signals predicted by five different General Circulation Models
Acknowledgements: Mike Hulme provided the precipitation data used in Figures 4.4
and 4.5 and Ben Santer provided the diagrams 4.8 to 4.11. The assistance of W.L. Gates,
M.E. Schlesinger, J.F.B. MitchelI, J.E. Hansen and S. Manabe in providing model results
is gratefully acknowledged. Much of the work and the data sets and time series discussed
in the chapter have been developed with the support of the United States Department
of Energy, Atmospheric and Climate Research Division and the U.K. Department of the
Environment.