INDEX
Monte Carlo methods, 110
Monte Carlo technique, 159
Monte Carlo testing, 160
MSE,184
Multichannel Singular Spectrum
Analysis, 259
multiple regression - using SST
EOFs,115
multivariate AR(1) process, 283
multivariate test statistic, 71
Murphy-Epstein decomposition,
192
natural internal variability, 67
natural variability, 67
NHMM,205
noise subspace, 227, 228
nonhomogeneous hidden Markov
model, 205, 209
North Atlantic Oscillation, 6, 62,
65
North's rule-of-thumb, 245
numerical experimentation, 8, 9
one-point teleconnection map, 215
orthogonal, 230, 236
Pacific/North American pattern,
217
parameterizations, 9
pattern correlation, 70
pattern similarity, 70
pattern verification, 192
permutation, 159, 160, 167
permutation procedures, 166
persistence, 182
PIP model, 283
PIPs, 283
PNA,217
Polya urn, 207
POP coefficient, 286
POP model, 283
POPs, 283, 286
PP, 167
precipitation, 56
333
precipitation network, 57
precipitation state, 201, 206, 209,
211
pressure, 56
principal components, 236
Principal Interaction Patterns,
232, 283
Principal Oscillation Patterns,
232, 283
principal vector, 236
problems with precipitation, 56
proportion of explained variance,
191
Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, 292
R(t), 70, 75
Redfield, 5
risk, 197,210
Rotated EOFs, 234
rotated EOFs - VARIMAX, 101
Sahel rainfall, 108
Sahel region, 62
scores, 236
selection rules, 244
semi-Markov model, 206, 207, 210
serial correlation, 106, 174
signal subspace, 227, 228
signal-to-noise ratio, 67
simplicity measure, 235
Singular Spectrum Analysis, 259
Singular Value Decomposition,
220, 231, 243
singular values, 221
singular vectors, 221
skill, 177
snowfall, 56
Southern Oscillation, 6
spatial correlation methods, 69
spatial pattern correlation statistic, 75
spherical harmonics, 234
SST - corrections, 98
SST - data, 55