The issue of tropical storms brings into focus the more general issue of the
impacts of climate change on the predictability of the Indian monsoon. There is
considerable debate over the longer-term implications of climate change on the
monsoon. In terms of its strength, a recent study by Roxy et al. (2015) points to a
gradual weakening of the monsoon as the sea–land thermal gradient reduces due to
sea-level temperature rises. In contrast, Jayasankar et al. (2015) argue that modelled
projections show a range of potential outcomes, but a cluster of models with highest
reliability suggest increased frequency in the occurrence of extreme and high
rainfall events, hence making more likely short-term flooding during the monsoon
season. Extrapolating these findings in terms of agricultural production, it appears
likely that farmers dependent on rain-fed systems will face intensified challenges
because of shifts in rainfall patterns during the monsoon.
An insight into these issues is provided by Iwasaki and Shaw’s (2008) the
examination of the relationship between climate-related environmental change and
household livelihoods in Chilika Lake, Odisha. The livelihoods of these fisherfolk
communities are finely attuned to environmental conditions, and bore the brunt of
major changes in the past two decades. These include the effects of intensified
rainfall during the monsoon on erosion of hill slopes adjacent to the lake, causing
aggravated siltation, the persistent impacts of regular tropical storms, and changes
to ocean environments, including sea temperatures, with impacts for marine
ecologies. Studies of similar conditions in the Sundarbans (both in India and
Bangladesh) highlight a comparable medley of challenges, but also including the
effects of land loss due to sea-level rise (Ayers and Forsyth 2009; Collins 2014).
Migration is one response to the threats and uncertainties accompanying climate
change and linked food insecurity, however, as a huge volume of the literature has
discussed, the precise link between climate change and migration can be conceptually difficult to untangle from wider migratory processes (Renaud et al. 2011). In
India, huge waves of migration occur annually and semi-annually for all kinds of
livelihood-related reasons. However, certainly in some parts of the country especially prone to physical change due to climate change—such as the threat facing the
Sundarbans and parts of coastal Kerala to sea-level rise, or the effects of glacial melt
in the Himalaya, resident populations might have little other option but to abandon
their homes and communities due to chronic problems associated with climate
change. As discussed above, populations on the move due to distress are especially
vulnerable to food insecurities of various sorts, which is an important potential
implication coming out of climate change.
6 Conclusion
This chapter has sought to provide an overarching perspective on the conceptual
connections between climate change on the one hand, and food security on the
other, paying particular attention to the Indian context. The important message from
the chapter is the need to recognize the potentially wide-ranging and diverse
The Impacts of Climate Change for Food and Nutrition Security: …
19
impacts of climate change on the predictability of the Indian monsoon. There is
considerable debate over the longer-term implications of climate change on the
monsoon. In terms of its strength, a recent study by Roxy et al. (2015) points to a
gradual weakening of the monsoon as the sea–land thermal gradient reduces due to
sea-level temperature rises. In contrast, Jayasankar et al. (2015) argue that modelled
projections show a range of potential outcomes, but a cluster of models with highest
reliability suggest increased frequency in the occurrence of extreme and high
rainfall events, hence making more likely short-term flooding during the monsoon
season. Extrapolating these findings in terms of agricultural production, it appears
likely that farmers dependent on rain-fed systems will face intensified challenges
because of shifts in rainfall patterns during the monsoon.
An insight into these issues is provided by Iwasaki and Shaw’s (2008) the
examination of the relationship between climate-related environmental change and
household livelihoods in Chilika Lake, Odisha. The livelihoods of these fisherfolk
communities are finely attuned to environmental conditions, and bore the brunt of
major changes in the past two decades. These include the effects of intensified
rainfall during the monsoon on erosion of hill slopes adjacent to the lake, causing
aggravated siltation, the persistent impacts of regular tropical storms, and changes
to ocean environments, including sea temperatures, with impacts for marine
ecologies. Studies of similar conditions in the Sundarbans (both in India and
Bangladesh) highlight a comparable medley of challenges, but also including the
effects of land loss due to sea-level rise (Ayers and Forsyth 2009; Collins 2014).
Migration is one response to the threats and uncertainties accompanying climate
change and linked food insecurity, however, as a huge volume of the literature has
discussed, the precise link between climate change and migration can be conceptually difficult to untangle from wider migratory processes (Renaud et al. 2011). In
India, huge waves of migration occur annually and semi-annually for all kinds of
livelihood-related reasons. However, certainly in some parts of the country especially prone to physical change due to climate change—such as the threat facing the
Sundarbans and parts of coastal Kerala to sea-level rise, or the effects of glacial melt
in the Himalaya, resident populations might have little other option but to abandon
their homes and communities due to chronic problems associated with climate
change. As discussed above, populations on the move due to distress are especially
vulnerable to food insecurities of various sorts, which is an important potential
implication coming out of climate change.
6 Conclusion
This chapter has sought to provide an overarching perspective on the conceptual
connections between climate change on the one hand, and food security on the
other, paying particular attention to the Indian context. The important message from
the chapter is the need to recognize the potentially wide-ranging and diverse
The Impacts of Climate Change for Food and Nutrition Security: …
19