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H.-J. Bolle, S. I. Rasool, P. Try
A What will be the impact on the Mediterranean area of global warming due to
increasing concentrations ofradiatively active gases in the atmosphere?
Specifically:
• Does the Mediterranean water cycle change and what would be the
consequences with respect to the future water resources available per capita in
the various regions and for the thread of desertification?
• Does global climate change manifest itself in the Mediterranean area by an
increase of extreme events with their threats for human life and welfare?
B What impact have man-made changes at the land surfaces on regional climate
and the availability of natural resources?
Specifically:
• Do changes of albedo due to land-use changes matter?
• How does the need for irrigation affect water availability?
• Does the generation of dust and pollution change and which effect does this
have in the climate system?
C Is the interaction between the global system and the Mediterranean subsystem
changing with changing climate and changing land-surface properties
respectively does the feedback to the global system change?
Specifically:
• What is the contribution of the Mediterranean Basin to the global carbon
budget and thus to the global greenhouse effect?
• What is the role of the Mediterranean Basin in the global water cycle (its
contribution to the oceanic conveyor belt and the net water vapour flux above
the basin).
The processes to be considered at the next lower level are listed in Table I where
their relevance to the three thematic blocks (A, B, C) is stated.
4 A Mediterranean Bio-physical-chemical Research Agenda
It would lead too far to go into details of research task but some thoughts how this
very complex research agenda may be structured into manageable research
components which in themselves are logical and based on joint goals of and close
communication lines between partners may help to judge the feasibility of an
integrative research approach which should incorporate partners of the whole
Mediterranean area. In this approach it is attempted to amalgamate the traditional
cooperation as practised within the "four views" with the need of an integrative
approach. The following research complexes seem to follow this definition. Their
tasks, relationships to the other research communities, and their roles in the overall
research approach can shortly be described below.
The research topics listed under the following items I to 5 though already highly
interdisciplinary nevertheless do not cover the whole spectrum of Mediterranean
research problems. Fig. 3 visualizes their relationship in the context of the
exploration how the Mediterranean may develop in the future. The figure contains
in addition items which treated by other scientific communities such as the
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