202
Diyarbakl r spring CMED
;r
' . .
o -.a~_
"'v-----=-'
. ,
,~ .... .'..,..~, . . .. - : ... /.:"" .. "
~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . _ _ ••• n . . _ _ . . . . . . _ . _ ...... ~ ..
1930
1940
1950
1960
1910
1980
1990
Isparta spring MEDT
1 ..
~"~ ......... ~ .... .... ,
o ~ -f~~~ ...... -: . _,. ....
-I .. ~~_ ....... ,...., ..
·2
lw~m:'. ~:::~N ~.:'
-I
-. J ....
·2
•
•
·3
- - -
1930
194.0
19!iO
1960
1970
1980
1990
Year
: I ~; ~:~;-_··c ' .... ::-".~
~
-~-- -
·2
.3UOO
19050
19.'50
1900 igro-igfjj)"i990
Yea,
Murat Tlirke~
Kulahya spnng MEDT
! [. .
-,.'
I
..... -
...... - J _.......
.. ..... _ ' ... _ -.?-. .. .. •
.:
... ..JV< / r '
~
-
1m
Ig.e;o
1950
I
1910
l!i1BO
1990
Ankara spring CCAN
2
--"
S I ..r--' ",
~
,...
'.-."... ....
! 0 •
• .... / "'......
, . ','
.'
'§-.
-,.--"
·2
·3 - - - " - " ' -
-
-~-~
'930
1940
,g:;(!
1980
lri70
198'J
1990
Fig. 11.2. Trends of normalized spring
precipitation series of selected stations in
Turkey from sequential values of the
statistics u(t) (- -) and u'(t) (_e_) of the
Mann-Kendall test, with the critical value
of ± 1.96 at the 5 per cent significance
level (-- - -- -J,
In autumn, there is no any significant trend that characterizes this season.
Normalized annual precipitation series of many stations show a general
downward trend with a long-period fluctuation. Observed downward trends are
significant at the 15 stations. Significant decreasing trends, most of which are at
the 1 per cent level, are major characteristics of the MED region. The CCAN
region is the only one in which two stations indicate a statistically upward trend
in the annual precipitation series.
Persistence. According to the Wald·Wolfowitz serial correlation analysis performed
by Tiirke~ (1995, 1996a) for normalized precipitation anomalies, significant
persistence from year to year variations was one of the dominant characteristic of
variations in annual and particularly in winter series, whereas significant negative
serial correlation associated with high year to year oscillations was evident in
variations of spring series.
Diyarbakl r spring CMED
;r
' . .
o -.a~_
"'v-----=-'
. ,
,~ .... .'..,..~, . . .. - : ... /.:"" .. "
~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . _ _ ••• n . . _ _ . . . . . . _ . _ ...... ~ ..
1930
1940
1950
1960
1910
1980
1990
Isparta spring MEDT
1 ..
~"~ ......... ~ .... .... ,
o ~ -f~~~ ...... -: . _,. ....
-I .. ~~_ ....... ,...., ..
·2
lw~m:'. ~:::~N ~.:'
-I
-. J ....
·2
•
•
·3
- - -
1930
194.0
19!iO
1960
1970
1980
1990
Year
: I ~; ~:~;-_··c ' .... ::-".~
~
-~-- -
·2
.3UOO
19050
19.'50
1900 igro-igfjj)"i990
Yea,
Murat Tlirke~
Kulahya spnng MEDT
! [. .
-,.'
I
..... -
...... - J _.......
.. ..... _ ' ... _ -.?-. .. .. •
.:
... ..JV< / r '
~
-
1m
Ig.e;o
1950
I
1910
l!i1BO
1990
Ankara spring CCAN
2
--"
S I ..r--' ",
~
,...
'.-."... ....
! 0 •
• .... / "'......
, . ','
.'
'§-.
-,.--"
·2
·3 - - - " - " ' -
-
-~-~
'930
1940
,g:;(!
1980
lri70
198'J
1990
Fig. 11.2. Trends of normalized spring
precipitation series of selected stations in
Turkey from sequential values of the
statistics u(t) (- -) and u'(t) (_e_) of the
Mann-Kendall test, with the critical value
of ± 1.96 at the 5 per cent significance
level (-- - -- -J,
In autumn, there is no any significant trend that characterizes this season.
Normalized annual precipitation series of many stations show a general
downward trend with a long-period fluctuation. Observed downward trends are
significant at the 15 stations. Significant decreasing trends, most of which are at
the 1 per cent level, are major characteristics of the MED region. The CCAN
region is the only one in which two stations indicate a statistically upward trend
in the annual precipitation series.
Persistence. According to the Wald·Wolfowitz serial correlation analysis performed
by Tiirke~ (1995, 1996a) for normalized precipitation anomalies, significant
persistence from year to year variations was one of the dominant characteristic of
variations in annual and particularly in winter series, whereas significant negative
serial correlation associated with high year to year oscillations was evident in
variations of spring series.