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Ana Igresias
and, thus, the likely methods of analysis that will be most effective. The survey is
important because different methods of impact assessment will yield information on
some, but probably not all, types of impact. For example, analysis oflarge-area shifts
of cropping zones will require broad-scale use of simple agro-climatic indices, whilst
analysis of yields can best be achieved through use of process-based crop growth
models. Effects on income and employment can only be assessed using economic and
social forms of analysis.
Climate variability is emerging as an important issue to be considered in the
impact studies, specially when evaluating associated risks of spatial agricultural
production. Recent studies consider explicitly the impact of climatic variability in
addition to climate change in the evaluations of crop responses.
In regions where current inter-annual climate variability is a mayor factor
determining agricultural output, there is an additional challenge for projecting
climate change impacts on crop patterns.
7 Assessment of Global Impacts
Potential impacts of climate change on world food supply are estimated for three
climate change scenarios developed from global climate models. Results show that
some regions may improve production, while others suffer yield losses. This could
lead to shifts of agricultural production zones around the nation. Furthermore,
different crops will be affected differently, leading to the need for adaptation of
supporting industries and markets. Climate change may alter the competitive
position of countries with respect, for example, to exports of agricultural products.
This may result from yields increasing as a result of altered climate in one country,
whilst being reduced in another. The altered competiti ve position may not only affect
exports, but also regional and farm-level income, rural employment and, of course,
the type of crops grown in a region. While most studies are unlikely to include an
analysis of competitiveness itself, it is possible to evaluate the relative position of a
country by studying the few analyses of climate change effects on global food trade.
Indeed, some data on country-level output are available as part of the global studies.
8 Case Study: Egypt
Background: Agriculture in Egypt is restricted to the fertile lands of the narrow Nile
valley from Aswan to Cairo and the flat Nile Delta north of Cairo. Together this
comprises only 3 per cent of the country's land area. Egypt's entire agricultural
water supply comes from irrigation, solely from the Nile River. In 1990, agriculture
(crops and livestock) accounted for 17 per cent of Egypt's gross domestic product.
Problem: The study sought to assess the potential impact of a change in climate
and sea level on Egypt's agricultural sector, accounting for changes in land area,
water resources, crop production and world agricultural trade. The aim was not to
Ana Igresias
and, thus, the likely methods of analysis that will be most effective. The survey is
important because different methods of impact assessment will yield information on
some, but probably not all, types of impact. For example, analysis oflarge-area shifts
of cropping zones will require broad-scale use of simple agro-climatic indices, whilst
analysis of yields can best be achieved through use of process-based crop growth
models. Effects on income and employment can only be assessed using economic and
social forms of analysis.
Climate variability is emerging as an important issue to be considered in the
impact studies, specially when evaluating associated risks of spatial agricultural
production. Recent studies consider explicitly the impact of climatic variability in
addition to climate change in the evaluations of crop responses.
In regions where current inter-annual climate variability is a mayor factor
determining agricultural output, there is an additional challenge for projecting
climate change impacts on crop patterns.
7 Assessment of Global Impacts
Potential impacts of climate change on world food supply are estimated for three
climate change scenarios developed from global climate models. Results show that
some regions may improve production, while others suffer yield losses. This could
lead to shifts of agricultural production zones around the nation. Furthermore,
different crops will be affected differently, leading to the need for adaptation of
supporting industries and markets. Climate change may alter the competitive
position of countries with respect, for example, to exports of agricultural products.
This may result from yields increasing as a result of altered climate in one country,
whilst being reduced in another. The altered competiti ve position may not only affect
exports, but also regional and farm-level income, rural employment and, of course,
the type of crops grown in a region. While most studies are unlikely to include an
analysis of competitiveness itself, it is possible to evaluate the relative position of a
country by studying the few analyses of climate change effects on global food trade.
Indeed, some data on country-level output are available as part of the global studies.
8 Case Study: Egypt
Background: Agriculture in Egypt is restricted to the fertile lands of the narrow Nile
valley from Aswan to Cairo and the flat Nile Delta north of Cairo. Together this
comprises only 3 per cent of the country's land area. Egypt's entire agricultural
water supply comes from irrigation, solely from the Nile River. In 1990, agriculture
(crops and livestock) accounted for 17 per cent of Egypt's gross domestic product.
Problem: The study sought to assess the potential impact of a change in climate
and sea level on Egypt's agricultural sector, accounting for changes in land area,
water resources, crop production and world agricultural trade. The aim was not to