Climate Changes in the Mediterranean Region:
Physical Aspects and Effects on Agriculture
A. Iglesias
1 Background
While agriculture is a complex sector, the system is still dependent on climate,
because heat, light, and water are the main drivers of crop growth. Plant diseases and
pest infestations, as well as the supply of and demand for irrigation water are also
dependent on climate.
There is now concern that the effects of climate variability on food production
and costs will be exacerbated due to global warming with its potential for affecting
the climatic regimes of entire regions (IPee, 2001). Furthermore, such shifts in
climate in different nations may have different effects on agricultural productivity
and costs.
The effects of climate change on agriculture are thus likely to vary between
different regions and different scales (global, regional and local). As a result, it is
most important that impact assessments be undertaken for as many different
locations as possible and for different sizes of study region, focusing not only in final
production, but in other indicators of vulnerability of the agricultural sector. This
will only be useful, however, if the methods of assessment are broadly compatible,
enabling the generation of sets of results that can be compared and integrated into
a wider picture. The purpose of this chapter is to provide guidance toward a set of
approaches that will enable progress toward this objective.
The Third Assessment Report of the IPee concludes that projected adverse
impacts of climate change include a general reduction in potential crop yields in
most tropical, subtropical and mid-latitude regions, and decreases in the water
availability for agriculture and population in those regions. In addition, the
assessment concludes that potential change in climate extremes could have major
consequences, and those impacts are expected to fall disproportionately on the poor.
2 Why is Climate Change of Concern in Agriculture?
World food production varies by several percent from year to year, largely as a result
of weather conditions such as the inter-annual climatic variability in the
Mediterranean and Sahel regions. But agriculture in some regions is more sensitive
than in others. Typically, sensitivity to weather is greatest firstly in developing
Physical Aspects and Effects on Agriculture
A. Iglesias
1 Background
While agriculture is a complex sector, the system is still dependent on climate,
because heat, light, and water are the main drivers of crop growth. Plant diseases and
pest infestations, as well as the supply of and demand for irrigation water are also
dependent on climate.
There is now concern that the effects of climate variability on food production
and costs will be exacerbated due to global warming with its potential for affecting
the climatic regimes of entire regions (IPee, 2001). Furthermore, such shifts in
climate in different nations may have different effects on agricultural productivity
and costs.
The effects of climate change on agriculture are thus likely to vary between
different regions and different scales (global, regional and local). As a result, it is
most important that impact assessments be undertaken for as many different
locations as possible and for different sizes of study region, focusing not only in final
production, but in other indicators of vulnerability of the agricultural sector. This
will only be useful, however, if the methods of assessment are broadly compatible,
enabling the generation of sets of results that can be compared and integrated into
a wider picture. The purpose of this chapter is to provide guidance toward a set of
approaches that will enable progress toward this objective.
The Third Assessment Report of the IPee concludes that projected adverse
impacts of climate change include a general reduction in potential crop yields in
most tropical, subtropical and mid-latitude regions, and decreases in the water
availability for agriculture and population in those regions. In addition, the
assessment concludes that potential change in climate extremes could have major
consequences, and those impacts are expected to fall disproportionately on the poor.
2 Why is Climate Change of Concern in Agriculture?
World food production varies by several percent from year to year, largely as a result
of weather conditions such as the inter-annual climatic variability in the
Mediterranean and Sahel regions. But agriculture in some regions is more sensitive
than in others. Typically, sensitivity to weather is greatest firstly in developing