454
M. Leopoid
Thus, to determine the potential possibility of increasing table carp
production only by 393 stocking the fattening ponds with K1
and maintained the
three—year production cycle, the linear regression equation should be used.
This equation is :
y5 = 5.371
+
1.445222
At an average 22 level of 3.2365
(see earlier calculations), the average pro—
duction of table carp would be 10.048 thousand tons,
i.e.
1.872 thousand tons
or
22.9
% more than actually produced.
A professional statistician might find some fault with these calculations
but it would in no way change the general conclusion that table carp produc—
tion can be increased just by limiting the K1 stocked in the fattening ponds
and that, in Polish conditions, the three—year cycle of carp production is
generally more effective and profitable.
The negative external factors affecting pond culture, mentioned previous—
ly, are probably water quality and availability. Increasingly poor water qua—
lity and the decreasing availability of good—quality water are general pro—
blems in European countries, and explain most, if not all, the negative trends
discussed in this paper.
CONCLUSIONS
The results presented in this paper certainly do not exhaust all the
possibilities of the "benefit" approach. However, even this incomplete analy—
sis reveals certain trends and regularities which would never have been ap—
parent with the traditional "cost” method. Moreover, they indicate that
analyses based on the "cost" approach only may lead to considerable error and
false conclusions. It is a prominent fact that any attempts to improve pond
culture per se, without persistent action in the field of water protection,
will either lead to nothing or lack effectiveness because production costs
will continue to increase.
It
is obvious that the immediate conclusions of
this paper are that the fish feeding system should be changed as well as the
production cycle. This would certainly improve the economics of carp produc—
tion in Poland, but there is no doubt that any consistent improvement in the
future rests on improving water protection. The "benefit" approach at least
creates
the possibility of including intangible values into economic analyses,
and should be developed and used on a wider scale.
APPENDIX
Symbols used in the text:
K1 — carp fry (one—year old fish)
K2 — two—year old fish used to produce table fish the next year
y
—
total pond fish production
.
yl — total carp production
y2 — production of other pond Species
y3 — use of feeds in pond culture
y4 — production of carp stocking material
y5 — production of table carp
y6 — production of K2
21
—
stocking of fattening ponds with K1
z2
—
stocking of fattening ponds with K2
23 — stocking of K1 into the rearing ponds to produce K2
M. Leopoid
Thus, to determine the potential possibility of increasing table carp
production only by 393 stocking the fattening ponds with K1
and maintained the
three—year production cycle, the linear regression equation should be used.
This equation is :
y5 = 5.371
+
1.445222
At an average 22 level of 3.2365
(see earlier calculations), the average pro—
duction of table carp would be 10.048 thousand tons,
i.e.
1.872 thousand tons
or
22.9
% more than actually produced.
A professional statistician might find some fault with these calculations
but it would in no way change the general conclusion that table carp produc—
tion can be increased just by limiting the K1 stocked in the fattening ponds
and that, in Polish conditions, the three—year cycle of carp production is
generally more effective and profitable.
The negative external factors affecting pond culture, mentioned previous—
ly, are probably water quality and availability. Increasingly poor water qua—
lity and the decreasing availability of good—quality water are general pro—
blems in European countries, and explain most, if not all, the negative trends
discussed in this paper.
CONCLUSIONS
The results presented in this paper certainly do not exhaust all the
possibilities of the "benefit" approach. However, even this incomplete analy—
sis reveals certain trends and regularities which would never have been ap—
parent with the traditional "cost” method. Moreover, they indicate that
analyses based on the "cost" approach only may lead to considerable error and
false conclusions. It is a prominent fact that any attempts to improve pond
culture per se, without persistent action in the field of water protection,
will either lead to nothing or lack effectiveness because production costs
will continue to increase.
It
is obvious that the immediate conclusions of
this paper are that the fish feeding system should be changed as well as the
production cycle. This would certainly improve the economics of carp produc—
tion in Poland, but there is no doubt that any consistent improvement in the
future rests on improving water protection. The "benefit" approach at least
creates
the possibility of including intangible values into economic analyses,
and should be developed and used on a wider scale.
APPENDIX
Symbols used in the text:
K1 — carp fry (one—year old fish)
K2 — two—year old fish used to produce table fish the next year
y
—
total pond fish production
.
yl — total carp production
y2 — production of other pond Species
y3 — use of feeds in pond culture
y4 — production of carp stocking material
y5 — production of table carp
y6 — production of K2
21
—
stocking of fattening ponds with K1
z2
—
stocking of fattening ponds with K2
23 — stocking of K1 into the rearing ponds to produce K2