Chapter 5
Operational Oil Spill Modelling:
From Science to Engineering Applications
in the Presence of Uncertainty
Ben R. Hodges, Alejandro Orfila, Juan M. Sayol and Xianlong Hou
Abstract Quantifying uncertainties in real-time operational oil spill forecasts
remains an outstanding problem, but one that should be solvable with present science and technology. Uncertainties arise from the salient characteristics of oil spill
models, hydrodynamic models, and wind forecast systems, which are affected by
choices of modelling parameters. Presented and discussed are: (1) a systems-level
approach for producing a range of oil spill forecasts, (2) a methodology for integrating probability estimates within oil spill models, and (3) a multi-model system
for updating forecasts. These technologies provide the next steps for the efficient
operational modelling required for real-time mitigation and crisis management for
oil spills at sea.
5.1 Introduction
Modelling of oil spills on the water’s surface has reached an important milestone.
We believe the next major advance for improving operational oil spill forecasts is by
addressing the accumulation of uncertainty in the wind, wave, and current models. In
this chapter, we propose modelling approaches for real-time evaluation of uncertainty
in oil spill trajectory models and explore the underlying sources and analyses methods
for uncertainty. Our objective is to stimulate development of quantitative model
B.R. Hodges (B) · X. Hou
Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering,
University of Texas at Austin, Austin, USA
e-mail: hodges@utexas.edu
X.Hou
e-mail: xianlonghou@gmail.com
A. Orfila · J.M. Sayol
Marine Technology and Operational Oceanography Department,
Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies (CSIC-UIB), Mallorca, Spain
e-mail: aorfila@imedea.uib-csic.es
J.M. Sayol
e-mail: jsayol@imedea.uib-csic.es
© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015
M. Ehrhardt (ed.), Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Simulation of Oil
Pollution Problems, The Reacting Atmosphere 2, DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-16459-5_5
99
Operational Oil Spill Modelling:
From Science to Engineering Applications
in the Presence of Uncertainty
Ben R. Hodges, Alejandro Orfila, Juan M. Sayol and Xianlong Hou
Abstract Quantifying uncertainties in real-time operational oil spill forecasts
remains an outstanding problem, but one that should be solvable with present science and technology. Uncertainties arise from the salient characteristics of oil spill
models, hydrodynamic models, and wind forecast systems, which are affected by
choices of modelling parameters. Presented and discussed are: (1) a systems-level
approach for producing a range of oil spill forecasts, (2) a methodology for integrating probability estimates within oil spill models, and (3) a multi-model system
for updating forecasts. These technologies provide the next steps for the efficient
operational modelling required for real-time mitigation and crisis management for
oil spills at sea.
5.1 Introduction
Modelling of oil spills on the water’s surface has reached an important milestone.
We believe the next major advance for improving operational oil spill forecasts is by
addressing the accumulation of uncertainty in the wind, wave, and current models. In
this chapter, we propose modelling approaches for real-time evaluation of uncertainty
in oil spill trajectory models and explore the underlying sources and analyses methods
for uncertainty. Our objective is to stimulate development of quantitative model
B.R. Hodges (B) · X. Hou
Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering,
University of Texas at Austin, Austin, USA
e-mail: hodges@utexas.edu
X.Hou
e-mail: xianlonghou@gmail.com
A. Orfila · J.M. Sayol
Marine Technology and Operational Oceanography Department,
Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies (CSIC-UIB), Mallorca, Spain
e-mail: aorfila@imedea.uib-csic.es
J.M. Sayol
e-mail: jsayol@imedea.uib-csic.es
© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015
M. Ehrhardt (ed.), Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Simulation of Oil
Pollution Problems, The Reacting Atmosphere 2, DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-16459-5_5
99