Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society
ENABLING DISCOVERY IN SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS
19
the heliospheric system are particularly hard to maintain as the rising cost 4 of developing and launching
individual observing elements limits the number of investigations that can be accomplished within available budget resources.
The diminished frequency of spacecraft launches is an example of a threat to the program recommended in this report. Its long-term detrimental consequences include reduced opportunities to retain
4 Rising mission costs are the result of external factors such as the increased cost of launch vehicles over the past decade; they
also reflect internal programmatic weaknesses. See National Research Council, Controlling Cost Growth of NASA Earth and Space
Science Missions, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 2010.
ness and understanding of space weather’s effects on vulnerable technological systems, these industries have
adopted procedures and technologies designed to mitigate the impacts of space weather on their operations
and customers.
• Relying on space weather forecasts and real-time data, power system operators modify the way the grid
is operated during severe geomagnetic disturbances to protect against outages and equipment damage.
• Spacecraft manufacturers draw on current scientific knowledge of the space environment in an attempt
to cost-effectively design and build commercial spacecraft that can operate 24/7 under severe space weather
conditions. Spacecraft operators factor space weather conditions into decision making about whether to launch
or to perform certain on-orbit operations.
• New signals and codes are being implemented in GPS satellites that are expected to help mitigate the
effects of ionospheric disturbances on space-based navigation. Nonetheless, the Federal Aviation Administration will maintain a backup navigation system that is independent of the GPS.
• To preserve reliable communications during intense solar energetic particle events, airline companies
re-route, at considerable expense, flights scheduled for polar routes. A secondary reason flights are diverted is
to reduce the cumulative dose of radiation to which passengers and, especially crew, are exposed.
• Such measures notwithstanding, the potential for the space-weather-related disruption of critical technologies remains. Of particular concern is the vulnerability of the electric power grid on which the U.S. national
infrastructure depends and which, despite the mitigation procedures adopted since 1989, could, in the event of
an unusually strong geomagnetic storm, experience both widespread power outages and permanent equipment damage.
1 New York Times, “The Aurora Borealis; The Brilliant Display on Sunday Night; Phenomena Connected with the Event; Mr. Meriam’s
Observations on the Aurora—E.M. Picks Up a Piece of the Aural Light; The Aurora as Seen Elsewhere—Remarkable Electrical Effects,”
August 30, 1859.
2 M.A. Shea and D.F. Smart, Compendium of the eight articles on the “Carrington Event” attributed to or written by Elias Loomis in the
American Journal of Science, 1859-1861, Advances in Space Research 38:313-385, 2006, p. 326.
3 For example, the Federal Emergency Management Agency held an exercise at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder,
Colorado, to investigate the consequences of a worst-case scenario. See Jon Hamilton, “Solar Storms Could Be Earth’s Next Katrina,” NPR
News, February 26, 2010, available at http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=124125001.
4 Adapted from National Research Council, Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts, The National
Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 2009.
Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society
ENABLING DISCOVERY IN SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS
19
the heliospheric system are particularly hard to maintain as the rising cost 4 of developing and launching
individual observing elements limits the number of investigations that can be accomplished within available budget resources.
The diminished frequency of spacecraft launches is an example of a threat to the program recommended in this report. Its long-term detrimental consequences include reduced opportunities to retain
4 Rising mission costs are the result of external factors such as the increased cost of launch vehicles over the past decade; they
also reflect internal programmatic weaknesses. See National Research Council, Controlling Cost Growth of NASA Earth and Space
Science Missions, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 2010.
ness and understanding of space weather’s effects on vulnerable technological systems, these industries have
adopted procedures and technologies designed to mitigate the impacts of space weather on their operations
and customers.
• Relying on space weather forecasts and real-time data, power system operators modify the way the grid
is operated during severe geomagnetic disturbances to protect against outages and equipment damage.
• Spacecraft manufacturers draw on current scientific knowledge of the space environment in an attempt
to cost-effectively design and build commercial spacecraft that can operate 24/7 under severe space weather
conditions. Spacecraft operators factor space weather conditions into decision making about whether to launch
or to perform certain on-orbit operations.
• New signals and codes are being implemented in GPS satellites that are expected to help mitigate the
effects of ionospheric disturbances on space-based navigation. Nonetheless, the Federal Aviation Administration will maintain a backup navigation system that is independent of the GPS.
• To preserve reliable communications during intense solar energetic particle events, airline companies
re-route, at considerable expense, flights scheduled for polar routes. A secondary reason flights are diverted is
to reduce the cumulative dose of radiation to which passengers and, especially crew, are exposed.
• Such measures notwithstanding, the potential for the space-weather-related disruption of critical technologies remains. Of particular concern is the vulnerability of the electric power grid on which the U.S. national
infrastructure depends and which, despite the mitigation procedures adopted since 1989, could, in the event of
an unusually strong geomagnetic storm, experience both widespread power outages and permanent equipment damage.
1 New York Times, “The Aurora Borealis; The Brilliant Display on Sunday Night; Phenomena Connected with the Event; Mr. Meriam’s
Observations on the Aurora—E.M. Picks Up a Piece of the Aural Light; The Aurora as Seen Elsewhere—Remarkable Electrical Effects,”
August 30, 1859.
2 M.A. Shea and D.F. Smart, Compendium of the eight articles on the “Carrington Event” attributed to or written by Elias Loomis in the
American Journal of Science, 1859-1861, Advances in Space Research 38:313-385, 2006, p. 326.
3 For example, the Federal Emergency Management Agency held an exercise at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder,
Colorado, to investigate the consequences of a worst-case scenario. See Jon Hamilton, “Solar Storms Could Be Earth’s Next Katrina,” NPR
News, February 26, 2010, available at http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=124125001.
4 Adapted from National Research Council, Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts, The National
Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 2009.