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Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society
REPORT OF THE PANEL ON ATMOSPHERE-IONOSPHERE-MAGNETOSPHERE INTERACTIONS
207
8.5.5.3 Research to Operations and Operations to Research
Research is the foundation for future improvements in space weather services. Ionospheric models
are just now beginning to reach maturity at a level that can benefit space weather customers. But at the
same time, there is a major decline in support for the development and improvement of models, which
are critical to operational entities.
Furthermore, model development aimed at improving forecasts requires a dedicated effort focused on
validation and verification. Also, in order to quantify a model’s performance, there is a need to establish
a standard set of metrics for space weather products. Under NASA, NSF, NOAA, and AFOSR sponsorship,
a standard set of metrics and a skill score most appropriate for a given space weather application need to
be selected that would reflect operational needs. Metrics and skill score should also be used to quantify
progress with each new model version.
To reduce “the valley of death” that separates research models and operational systems, the AIMI panel
suggests that operational and research agencies fund open-source models. Open-source operational models
have the potential to minimize the cost of transitioning research models to operations and of maintaining
the models.
AIMI Priority: Improve the effectiveness and level of support for model development, validation, and
transition to operation.
Existing and planned assets that are routinely used for purposes other than space weather often have
capabilities that could be utilized to return valuable space science measurements. With minimal investment,
important data can be obtained from these instruments. One very-low-cost example includes tasking on a
daily basis the Altair radar at Kwajalein to measure ionospheric parameters (electron density and plasma
irregularities). This can easily be done during short periods interlaced between scheduled radar target
acquisitions. These measurements would also benefit the users of the Altair system by providing a method
to detect and forecast possible scintillation problems that could affect the radar data.
AIMI Priority: Seek high-leverage opportunities for acquiring new measurements.
It is widely recognized that space environment data provided by NOAA and DOD operational satellites for almost four decades are essential to AIMI science. Data from these satellites are of fundamental
importance for space weather forecasting. They are among the most often used data sets for space science
research on ionosphere/magnetosphere coupling. In addition, they are essential for studying long-term
climatic changes in geospace. The following three-part imperative follows:
AIMI Priority: Leverage national investments in operational satellite data for scientific progress:
(1) NOAA and DOD should maintain the space environment sensing capability that has provided data
for almost four decades and should continue to acquire observations from low-Earth-orbit satellites of
particle precipitation, ion drifts, ion density, and magnetic perturbations similar to those measured from
POES and DMSP. (2) Open data policies should be negotiated with DOD, DOE, and other agencies (that
also safeguard national security concerns). (3) DOD, NOAA, and NASA should coordinate the archiving
of these data sets, making data accessible and creating tools that provide for ease of use. The present Solar
and Space Physics Information System could naturally form the core of this program.
Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society
REPORT OF THE PANEL ON ATMOSPHERE-IONOSPHERE-MAGNETOSPHERE INTERACTIONS
207
8.5.5.3 Research to Operations and Operations to Research
Research is the foundation for future improvements in space weather services. Ionospheric models
are just now beginning to reach maturity at a level that can benefit space weather customers. But at the
same time, there is a major decline in support for the development and improvement of models, which
are critical to operational entities.
Furthermore, model development aimed at improving forecasts requires a dedicated effort focused on
validation and verification. Also, in order to quantify a model’s performance, there is a need to establish
a standard set of metrics for space weather products. Under NASA, NSF, NOAA, and AFOSR sponsorship,
a standard set of metrics and a skill score most appropriate for a given space weather application need to
be selected that would reflect operational needs. Metrics and skill score should also be used to quantify
progress with each new model version.
To reduce “the valley of death” that separates research models and operational systems, the AIMI panel
suggests that operational and research agencies fund open-source models. Open-source operational models
have the potential to minimize the cost of transitioning research models to operations and of maintaining
the models.
AIMI Priority: Improve the effectiveness and level of support for model development, validation, and
transition to operation.
Existing and planned assets that are routinely used for purposes other than space weather often have
capabilities that could be utilized to return valuable space science measurements. With minimal investment,
important data can be obtained from these instruments. One very-low-cost example includes tasking on a
daily basis the Altair radar at Kwajalein to measure ionospheric parameters (electron density and plasma
irregularities). This can easily be done during short periods interlaced between scheduled radar target
acquisitions. These measurements would also benefit the users of the Altair system by providing a method
to detect and forecast possible scintillation problems that could affect the radar data.
AIMI Priority: Seek high-leverage opportunities for acquiring new measurements.
It is widely recognized that space environment data provided by NOAA and DOD operational satellites for almost four decades are essential to AIMI science. Data from these satellites are of fundamental
importance for space weather forecasting. They are among the most often used data sets for space science
research on ionosphere/magnetosphere coupling. In addition, they are essential for studying long-term
climatic changes in geospace. The following three-part imperative follows:
AIMI Priority: Leverage national investments in operational satellite data for scientific progress:
(1) NOAA and DOD should maintain the space environment sensing capability that has provided data
for almost four decades and should continue to acquire observations from low-Earth-orbit satellites of
particle precipitation, ion drifts, ion density, and magnetic perturbations similar to those measured from
POES and DMSP. (2) Open data policies should be negotiated with DOD, DOE, and other agencies (that
also safeguard national security concerns). (3) DOD, NOAA, and NASA should coordinate the archiving
of these data sets, making data accessible and creating tools that provide for ease of use. The present Solar
and Space Physics Information System could naturally form the core of this program.