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Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society
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SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS: A SCIENCE FOR A TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIETY
processes that are elements of these connections. Coupling within the AIM system and with other elements in the Sun-Earth system spans timescales from seconds to centuries and serves to refocus efforts in
understanding global change and the role of solar variability in climate. Tackling planetary change and
space climate issues is dependent on the availability of historical data sets and continuity in observations
of key AIM parameters like atmospheric temperatures, composition and cooling rates, and solar inputs
like spectral irradiance and interplanetary magnetic field. Finally, the future of assimilative modeling in
space weather prediction rests on a continuing supply of near-real-time observations of the AIM system
that provide information on large-scale features like the auroral zone and equatorial electrojet as well as
small-scale gradients relevant to the triggering of ionospheric instabilities.
Advances in computer power and speed have reached the point that self-consistent simulations of
multiscale coupling in the AIM system are already possible. Existing peta-scale computers have reached
300,000 cores, and powerful mega-core computers are expected in the next decade to provide the computational equivalent of 1 million to 10 million CPU cores. These computational advances will drive a
revolution in the realism of simulations and the ability to reproduce the self-consistent global signatures of
small-scale processes. These advances in modeling in a very real sense parallel the innovations in observational programs that are high-priority targets in this chapter. An investment in a range of technological
capabilities is needed to take full advantage of these powerful computational resources, including new
multiscale, multiphysics algorithms (such as adaptive mesh refinement), computational frameworks that
couple physics across disparate time and spatial scales, innovative ways to mine, visualize, and analyze
massive amounts of data produced by the next generation of multiscale simulations, and data assimilation
technologies essential to improve space weather forecasting tools.
These requirements and technological advances compel the following:
AIMI Priority: Establish a re-balanced and expanded Research and Analysis Program with the following elements:
• Solar and space physics (heliophysics) science centers, a new program of interdisciplinary centers
(heliophysics scientists with computational experts) that leverages the power of peta-scale computers to
create powerful physics-based multiscale models of the AIM system and its coupling to other regions,
alongside parallel efforts in data assimilation and data fusion. Similar interdisciplinary theory and modeling
efforts in the range of $1.5 million to $5 million per year over 3 to 5 years’ duration but not focused specifically on geospace are funded through NSF through its Frontiers in Earth System Dynamics, and AFOSR
through its Multidisciplinary Research Program of the University Research Initiative program. NASA funds
smaller-scale modeling efforts within the strategic capabilities category in the Living with a Star Targeted
Research and Technology program. Given the large costs of these programs, it may work best if NASA,
NSF, and AFOSR coordinate their funding of these multidisciplinary programs in order to avoid duplication
and ensure that essential projects are funded.
• A strengthened NASA theory program that supports critical-mass groups responding to new theoretical challenges in AIM science using a wide variety of research approaches.
• An enhanced data analysis program (attached to satellite missions and ground-based facilities) that
provides a level of support needed to convert new and archived AIM observations into knowledge and
understanding.
• An upgraded R&A program that is a reasonable fraction of the overall AIM budget to make sure that
expenditures in the program are converted to major advances in science.
Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society
204
SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS: A SCIENCE FOR A TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIETY
processes that are elements of these connections. Coupling within the AIM system and with other elements in the Sun-Earth system spans timescales from seconds to centuries and serves to refocus efforts in
understanding global change and the role of solar variability in climate. Tackling planetary change and
space climate issues is dependent on the availability of historical data sets and continuity in observations
of key AIM parameters like atmospheric temperatures, composition and cooling rates, and solar inputs
like spectral irradiance and interplanetary magnetic field. Finally, the future of assimilative modeling in
space weather prediction rests on a continuing supply of near-real-time observations of the AIM system
that provide information on large-scale features like the auroral zone and equatorial electrojet as well as
small-scale gradients relevant to the triggering of ionospheric instabilities.
Advances in computer power and speed have reached the point that self-consistent simulations of
multiscale coupling in the AIM system are already possible. Existing peta-scale computers have reached
300,000 cores, and powerful mega-core computers are expected in the next decade to provide the computational equivalent of 1 million to 10 million CPU cores. These computational advances will drive a
revolution in the realism of simulations and the ability to reproduce the self-consistent global signatures of
small-scale processes. These advances in modeling in a very real sense parallel the innovations in observational programs that are high-priority targets in this chapter. An investment in a range of technological
capabilities is needed to take full advantage of these powerful computational resources, including new
multiscale, multiphysics algorithms (such as adaptive mesh refinement), computational frameworks that
couple physics across disparate time and spatial scales, innovative ways to mine, visualize, and analyze
massive amounts of data produced by the next generation of multiscale simulations, and data assimilation
technologies essential to improve space weather forecasting tools.
These requirements and technological advances compel the following:
AIMI Priority: Establish a re-balanced and expanded Research and Analysis Program with the following elements:
• Solar and space physics (heliophysics) science centers, a new program of interdisciplinary centers
(heliophysics scientists with computational experts) that leverages the power of peta-scale computers to
create powerful physics-based multiscale models of the AIM system and its coupling to other regions,
alongside parallel efforts in data assimilation and data fusion. Similar interdisciplinary theory and modeling
efforts in the range of $1.5 million to $5 million per year over 3 to 5 years’ duration but not focused specifically on geospace are funded through NSF through its Frontiers in Earth System Dynamics, and AFOSR
through its Multidisciplinary Research Program of the University Research Initiative program. NASA funds
smaller-scale modeling efforts within the strategic capabilities category in the Living with a Star Targeted
Research and Technology program. Given the large costs of these programs, it may work best if NASA,
NSF, and AFOSR coordinate their funding of these multidisciplinary programs in order to avoid duplication
and ensure that essential projects are funded.
• A strengthened NASA theory program that supports critical-mass groups responding to new theoretical challenges in AIM science using a wide variety of research approaches.
• An enhanced data analysis program (attached to satellite missions and ground-based facilities) that
provides a level of support needed to convert new and archived AIM observations into knowledge and
understanding.
• An upgraded R&A program that is a reasonable fraction of the overall AIM budget to make sure that
expenditures in the program are converted to major advances in science.