5.2 The Long Model Cascade
A major problem in communicating model results is the long ‘model cascade’ with
partly hidden assumptions about future development. Results from one model are
fed into the next one, which itself relies on assumptions or hypotheses. This results
in a chain or cascade of models that starts with projections of the global greenhouse
gas emissions, moves on to the impact of the global climate system and on to
regional or local impacts on flora and fauna (Fig. 5.1). The relevance and reliability
of the final outcome might, thus, be difficult to judge with regard to modelling
uncertainties. To have an impression of the usefulness of the specific contribution
Fig. 5.1 The chain/cascade from emission scenarios to regional climate impact models
5 Climate Change Impact Modelling Cascade – Benefits and Limitations. . .
65
A major problem in communicating model results is the long ‘model cascade’ with
partly hidden assumptions about future development. Results from one model are
fed into the next one, which itself relies on assumptions or hypotheses. This results
in a chain or cascade of models that starts with projections of the global greenhouse
gas emissions, moves on to the impact of the global climate system and on to
regional or local impacts on flora and fauna (Fig. 5.1). The relevance and reliability
of the final outcome might, thus, be difficult to judge with regard to modelling
uncertainties. To have an impression of the usefulness of the specific contribution
Fig. 5.1 The chain/cascade from emission scenarios to regional climate impact models
5 Climate Change Impact Modelling Cascade – Benefits and Limitations. . .
65